Title: College Sports Conference Realignment Fallout: Uncertain Future for Schools and Leagues
Introduction:
The aftermath of a frenzied summer of conference realignment in college sports continues to affect the start of the football season. With several Pac-12 schools jumping ship to join the Big Ten and Big 12 within a month, there are still some loose ends to be settled before the kickoff of the 2023 season. As schools and conferences ponder their next steps, Nicole Auerbach, Justin Williams, and Stewart Mandel analyze the current situation and what to watch for.
1. The Fate of the Pac-12’s Final Four:
Stanford and Cal are still holding out hope of receiving invitations to the ACC. Talks have been ongoing regarding expanding the ACC westward to include these schools and possibly SMU. However, expansion discussions are currently on hold, with the ACC facing opposition from schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and NC State. The involvement of political heavyweights Condoleezza Rice and George W. Bush further emphasizes the financial implications of expansion. Oregon State and Washington State are anxiously waiting to see the decisions of Stanford and Cal before exploring their limited options. If the four schools stick together, they may consider rebuilding the Pac-12 before considering alternatives in the Mountain West or the American Athletic Conference.
2. The Big 12’s Future:
After years of speculation and uncertainty, the Big 12 seems content with its 16 future members starting in 2024. Conference commissioner Brett Yormark stated that the Big 12 is done with expansion and no longer considering schools like Gonzaga and UConn. Yormark believes that the addition of the “Four Corners” schools from the Pac-12 allows the Big 12 to establish itself as the third power conference behind the Big Ten and SEC. The league has addressed significant issues, including media rights deals, early exits for Texas and Oklahoma, and expansion, positioning itself for stability and growth.
3. Potential Changes to the College Football Playoff:
With the Pac-12 potentially reducing the number of “power” leagues from five to four, the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) format may require adjustments. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey hinted at revisiting previous agreements on format and automatic qualification spots. Discussions may involve an adjusted model for a “Power 4” scenario, granting more automatic spots to conference champions alongside at-large bids. The revenue distribution from the CFP, which has been evenly distributed among Power 5 leagues, may face further debate as conferences with more successful teams may seek greater financial rewards.
4. TV-Related Deadlines and Negotiation Windows:
The potential disbandment of the Pac-12 could have implications for TV-related contracts and negotiation windows. Major conferences like the Big Ten and ACC recently signed new deals, and their contracts wouldn’t be up for renegotiation anytime soon. It is crucial to monitor the developments in the realignment carousel, as shifts in conference alignments could impact future TV contracts and negotiations.
Conclusion:
As the fallout from college sports’ dramatic conference realignment continues, schools and conferences are still grappling with uncertain futures. The Pac-12’s final four schools are awaiting potential invitations from the ACC, while the Big 12 embraces stability with its 16 future members. The College Football Playoff may undergo changes to accommodate the reduced number of “power” leagues, while TV-related deadlines and negotiations could be crucial for future realignment discussions. The college sports landscape remains in flux, with schools and conferences strategizing their next moves in this ever-evolving landscape.