The fate of the ruble is predicted after the recognition of the DNR and LNR

by time news

Soon we can see the dollar at 100 rubles

Hard times have come for the ruble. The Security Council called for the recognition of the independence of the DNR and LNR. The national currency is rapidly weakening: on February 21, the euro exchange rate against the “wooden” one rose above 90 rubles, the dollar exchange rate – 79. The reason for the fall of the currency, as in previous months, is the geopolitical risks that Russia faced when resolving the issue of recognizing the independence of the DPR and LPR.

According to experts’ forecasts, our country may fall under tough sanctions from the US and European countries, and the national currency will continue to fall. Soon the dollar may break through the mark of 100 rubles.

Natalya Milchakova, Deputy Head of IAC “Alpari”:

“What is happening in the foreign exchange market today is an absolutely normal reaction to what the whole world is now seeing on TV or on the Internet. The matter is moving towards the recognition of the independence of the now unrecognized republics of Donbass. Now the dollar has an immediate target of 80 rubles. The euro has 90 rubles. It is possible that these levels will be reached today. In the longer term, 100 rubles per dollar is theoretically possible. But this will depend on what sanctions will be, and what countermeasures the government will take to protect the Russians from their consequences. Above 100 rubles, the dollar will not climb yet. Here the Central Bank can take measures in the form of the return of foreign exchange interventions, and the market itself can, without the help of the Central Bank, win everything back if it turns out that the consequences of the sanctions are not as terrible as they are trying to scare us. It is better to keep savings by 70% in US dollars, the rest – in rubles. But you need to understand that you should not get too carried away with dollars if the United States (theoretically) completely bans transactions with the dollar for all Russian banks. You can also look at the Swiss franc as a possible safe haven for savings.”

Anton Bykov, Senior Analyst at Esperio:

“The ruble is under pressure due to the lack of alternatives to the introduction of a new package of anti-Russian sanctions. Therefore, in the coming months, investors will not have time to analyze the financial stability of Russia. They will simply run away from the Russian financial market, selling Russian stocks, bonds and the ruble. Apparently, in 2022 we will see a very rare phenomenon and oil at $100 per barrel Brent, and the US dollar at 100 rubles. Naturally, not in one movement, and not at one time. If the DPR and LPR are recognized, oil will quickly exceed $100 per barrel, and the ruble will fall into the range of 85-90 per US dollar. After that, already in the second half of 2022, oil will begin to fall to $50-60 per barrel of Brent and below, and the ruble will go to new anti-records in the range of 95-105 rubles per US currency.”

Pavel Sigal, First Vice President of Opora Rossii:

“The ruble is falling under the pressure of geopolitics. The current situation clearly illustrates how convenient and comfortable a multicurrency savings basket is. Naturally, it should be created at a quieter time, but this strategy is definitely worth taking a closer look at. The classical approach is to distribute finances approximately in equal proportions between three or four currencies, including the ruble.”

Ivan Samoylenko, Managing Partner at B&C Agency:

“The exchange rate of the ruble will depend on whether new sanctions will be introduced against our country in the near future. The scenario in which the ruble exceeds a hundred in tandem with dollars can be classified as extremely negative. The national currency may still lose ground, but the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will do everything possible to stabilize the situation. As for the storage of funds, they must be left in the currency that is needed in the near future. If you need foreign currency for holidays and visits to neighboring countries, you can gradually buy it, but if expenses are planned in rubles, you need to take the currency with caution so as not to lose on exchange rate fluctuations. It is also possible to keep savings not only in dollars and euros, but also in stable currencies, such as Japanese yen or Swiss francs.”

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