Amato (Ingv): Anatolian plate, displacements up to ten metres. Turkish seismologist Aybige Akinci: high seismicity in 90 percent of the country
The seismic situation in Turkey and Syria continues to be critical. Monday’s quake with a magnitude of 7.5 on the Anatolian plate (which, according to the latest toll, caused more than 11,000 deaths in Turkey and Syria) was distributed for about one hundred kilometers in an east-west direction and in the central area, it showed, albeit in a ‘limited area, a shift of ten meters explains Alessandro Amato, research manager at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (Ingv). The energy accumulated in recent years still requires time to be released, as evidenced by the continuous repetition of the tremors which continued yesterday at a sustained pace, remaining at a level of 4.7 on the Richter scale.
Earthquake in Turkey and Syria, the latest news today
The plaque
After all, the Anatolian plate moves two centimeters a year with respect to the Arabian plate and the forces involved fuel the accumulation of energy – he adds -. An attempt is made to study the trend of the phenomenon with theoretical models of stress transfer, but the results do not help to decipher what could be happening underground. Of course, in recent years, by examining historical data and evaluating soil deformations with new instruments such as satellites, we have greater knowledge. We can therefore improve prevention while prediction remains impossible. Turkey’s seismic history offers bulletins with heavy casualty numbers. a country vulnerable to earthquakes, being at the crossroads of three large plates in constant motion, points out Aybige Akinci, Turkish seismologist now researcher at Ingv but also engaged in projects in collaboration with colleagues in Turkey. In the last twenty years – continues the scientist – three earthquakes over seven degrees on the Richter scale certify a territory that is 90 percent highly seismic and one of the busiest in the Mediterranean and in the world.
The faults
It is estimated that there are about 400 active faults, some judged to be more dangerous such as the well-known one south of Istanbul, not far from the city, for which the data collected tell us that one day it will break generating a serious earthquake. In the succession of events that characterized the last century, 1939 remains a point of reference on which seismologists from all over the world concentrate their attention even today. An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 (the same as the current one) struck Erzican in eastern Turkey causing the impressive number of 33,000 victims while the city was almost razed to the ground. Then – says Akinci – the fault occurred in northern Anatolia for over a thousand kilometers going almost from one end of the country to the other, triggering a series of violent earthquakes over the next 60 years.
A seismic network covers almost the entire territory collecting information and monitoring the most dangerous areas. More could be done – adds the Turkish scientist – and be even more capillaries to improve prevention. Research shows that the distribution of faults in Anatolia are regular while in Italy they are more complex. This means that it is easier to understand the distribution of forces and the domino effect that can be generated in the surrounding territories.
For this reason one looks with apprehension at the fault just 20 kilometers from Istanbul along which 12 earthquakes have already occurred over time and where people live in a high-risk condition waiting for a Big One like in California. If forecasts unfortunately remain impossible, an analysis of the situation can provide some clues on the evolution of the phenomenon. The intensity of the continuing aftershocks suggests that seismic activity will continue. Not unreasonable to think about a continuation for days or weeks or maybe a few months. Looking at risk mitigation, in 2018 the government passed the regulation to the law approved six years earlier for anti-seismic buildings. But it is not always respected concludes Aybige Akinci bitterly.
February 8, 2023 (change February 9, 2023 | 10:32 am)
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