The fear of a partial and different agreement between Bennett and Ganz

How close is Iran to the bomb? Interview with Dr. Raz Zimet

(Photo: Shmulik Dudpur)

It was a dramatic week in Washington-Jerusalem relations. A week in which The substantive controversy over the Iranian issue Between the Biden administration and the Bennett-Lapid-Ganz government, it floated to the surface in all its sharpness. Senior Biden government officials fear that if Israel continues to launch an offensive in Iran, it will hurt them in negotiations with the Iranians – and the chance of reaching a new agreement with them.

Worse. In Washington it is believed thatIsraeli activity against nuclear facilities and scientists in IranWhether or not a renewed nuclear deal is signed will drag the United States against its desire to engage in a confrontation with Iran. This is at a time when the US administration is very much striving to completely remove the ‘Iranian case’ from its agenda in order to be free to deal with the conflicts that are really important to it – against China and Russia.

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A lax American approach that would only lead to a partial agreement? Biden, Raisi and Bennett

(Photo: AP, EPA)

The Israeli government’s concerns about the lax US conduct toward Iran are no less serious. The main concern at the moment is that in the absence of the ability to reach a full settlement with the Iranians, the Americans will agree to a partial settlement under which most of the sanctions on Iranian oil exports will be lifted in exchange for a temporary and partial restriction of Iranian uranium enrichment program.

If this nightmare dream comes true from Jerusalem’s point of view, Iran will for years stand in the status of a “nuclear threshold” and have billions to fund its strategic plans for Iran-Shiite hegemony in the Middle East. Recent skyrocketing oil prices will allow the ayatollahs’ regime to fund the continued development of nuclear weapons and the fortification of its offensive facilities, to fund the development and production of precision missile systems and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and to fund its emissary armies. That we attributed his political survival.

So far, the debate has been going on in private, so as not to cloud the atmosphere between the two new governments in Jerusalem and Washington – who wanted to avoid the tension that prevailed between the Netanyahu government and the Obama administration in the previous decade. However, negotiations with Tehran on a return to the nuclear agreement with the powers, Which is set to resume this coming Monday, Brought both sides to remove the gloves.

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The centrifuges in Natanz, who was also attacked. The fear in the United States: that Israel will drag them into conflict

This time the Americans were the ones who started. BAn article published Monday in the New York Times (A newspaper that is a staunch supporter of the Democratic administration), senior Washington officials have sharply criticized the attacks that Israel says it has carried out in recent years against Iran’s facilities and nuclear scientists. U.S. officials have argued that Trump’s withdrawal (encouraged by Netanyahu) from the original nuclear deal has prompted Iran to make moderate violations of its nuclear deal with the powers, mainly as a pressure on the United States to lift sanctions.

However, according to the report, Israel’s disruptive operations against the Iranian nuclear program (such as elimination) Mohsin Fahrizada A year ago, who is considered Iran’s top nuclear scientist) not only did they not achieve their goal, but even caused the angry Iranians Improve and accelerate the development of advanced centrifuges and the enrichment of uranium to high levels. As a result, Iran is today in a situation where, if it wants to, it will have enough fissile material to head one nuclear war within a few weeks. If the agreement had been in force, the Americans claim, Iran would still be 12-10 months away from obtaining the scorecard needed for the nuclear weapons core.

In Jerusalem, in the Kirya in Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel, they were furious about the publication in the prestigious American newspaper. Not so much because it underestimates the real value of the Mossad’s actions to disrupt Iran’s military nuclear program, nor because it claims in Washington that Israeli activity achieves opposite results to those desired by Israel and the United States. The Washington administration is pressuring the government in Jerusalem, through Israeli public opinion, to join the conciliatory line it is taking – the return of Iran through diplomacy to a renewed nuclear deal.

Bennett: “Maybe the world will blink, we will not”

(Photo: Go Live )

To be fair, this week’s article in the New York Times was preceded by several articles and commentaries in the Israeli media in recent weeks criticizing Washington’s eagerness to return to the nuclear deal, without even trying to back up the diplomatic effort to use pressure levers, including a credible military threat. There has also been criticism in Israel that the Biden administration does not have a “Plan B”, ie an alternative plan to prevent nuclear weapons from Iran in case the negotiations fail or explode.

Two days after the article appeared in the American newspaper, Bennett and Gantz went out toCounterattack at an important security-political conference Held at Reichman University. Bennett said, reading deliberately slowly from the reporter and emphasizing every word: “We hope the world will not blink, but even if we do not intend to blink. We are facing a complex period, there may also be disagreements (with) the best of our friends and this will not be the first time either. If there is an agreement, Israel is not a party to the agreement and is not bound by the agreement. “

The Israeli prime minister made it clear to the United States and the five powers still signing the nuclear deal (Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China) that Israel does not respond to Washington’s demand to refrain from disrupting Iran’s military nuclear program, and intends to continue during and after the negotiations. Consequently, Israel considers itself free to carry out a preventive attack on all components of the Iranian nuclear and missile program at any time it chooses – even in the event that an agreement is reached and it is in force.

Ganz and the presentation: This is how the Iranian aggression increased because of the forgiveness towards it

(Photo: Go Live )

It was clear that the Prime Minister was trying very hard not to sabotageThe recent warm relationship with the Biden administration, And therefore used an indirect and vague wording, but the meaning of what was said could not be mistaken. By the way, this was a signal not only to Baidan but also to Netanyahu and his supporters, who accused Bennett of intending to coordinate with the Americans, that is, to get permission from them, before any action in Iran. Bennett took the opportunity to prove to his “base” that this claim is also Pike News.

Ganz in turn took advantage of the podium at a conference in Herzliya to prove to the Americans how wrong their forgiving response was to the Iranian provocations against them and their allies in the Middle East. The defense minister brought with him Detailed presentation Showing how The lack of a U.S. response has only increased the rate of UAV attacks The gunmen / suicide bombers were launched by the Iranians from their territory or by the militias loyal to them towards American bases, towards commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and towards the Saudi oil industry.

The implication is clear: the new conservative regime in Iran understands only the language of power. He gives up and is willing to compromise only when he encounters determined resistance. Conclusion: Even the diplomatic channel through which the US tries to persuade Iran to suspend its aggressive strategy will not bring the desired results, unless it has the backing of a credible economic and military threat.

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Bennett and Biden at their White House meeting in August. Israel does not want to break the tools

(Photo: Avi Ohayon, GPO)

The interesting thing is that in the Biden administration there are quite a few senior officials who show understanding for the Israeli claims. From the Zoom interview with White House Adviser Brett McGurk, edited by Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, who initiated and chaired the conference, it was clear that the Biden administration has a “Plan B” in case negotiations fail, but this alternative plan is based on additional economic and diplomatic sanctions. That this time they will be more biting as they will be imposed in full cooperation with the Europeans and possibly also with China and Russia.

McGurk also hinted at a possible military option, but did not say so explicitly, either because he feared the Iranians or because that option – at least for the time being – is not on Biden’s table. He only noted that the United States had transferred military ties with Israel to the Central Committee (US Central Command responsible for the Middle East arena). This means that the United States is tightening and facilitating military cooperation with Israel and considers it part of the Middle East Arab Gulf states.

But Jerusalem did not calm down. Today, the conservative Wall Street Journal published the appropriate Zionist response to an article published Monday in the New York Times. Israeli officials have explicitly expressed concern about a partial nuclear deal between the United States and the powers to be reached in Vienna. “B will not sit idly by if Iran delays progress in the nuclear talks.” “, said.

American warning of attacks on US nuclear facilities: Watch Ynet studio

(Photo: Meshi Ben Ami)

This is more or less the situation on the eve of the opening of negotiations in Vienna, which will probably be long and exhausting. It is likely to postpone for at least a few years the need for a major preventive offensive against the Islamic Republic.

However, one can distinguish the difference between Bennett’s strict view of the Americans as an almost conciliatory Munich-style approach and arguing that this approach should not be cooperated with, and Ganz who believes that cooperation with the Americans is important to Israel’s national security. The difference is in the nuances, but it is likely that as the outlines of a new nuclear agreement between the powers and Iran (if any) become clearer, disagreements between the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem and the General Staff building and the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv will erupt.

In Iran, it seems that the rigid conservative regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and new President Ibrahim Raisi does not intend to give up even the iodine tip, but only to exhaust the powers and Americans and pressure them with outside provocations until they surrender and remove sanctions, or until negotiations fail and Iran shuffles Its path at a pace that will set towards a nuclear threshold capability.

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Khamenei and the Centrifuges. The goal to exhaust the powers?

(Photo: AP, EPA)

It is estimated that Tehran will not assemble a nuclear warhead even if it can, nor will it conduct a nuclear test. If for fear of isolation in the international arena and the sanctions that the US will impose on it or if because Iran has nuclear weapons, it will also run all the countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. By the way, Iran also declares – like Israel – that it does not want a partial nuclear agreement in Vienna.

In any case, on the eve of the resumption of nuclear talks, Israel must formulate an independent strategy. The denial of the American negotiating strategy and fear of its consequences are not a substitute for Israeli policy and initiatives that will allow us to maintain the freedom of political maneuver and the freedom of action, so that we will eventually be able to prevent nuclear weapons from Iran at any time and in any strategic environment.

In this context, it seems appropriate to refrain from responding to the US demand to suspend or suspend for a time the covert operations to disrupt Iran’s military nuclear project. Although this activity did not disrupt the Iranian nuclear program, it slowed it down for quite some time and helped us instill in the minds of world leaders that Iran is striving for nuclear weapons.

Chief of Staff: “IDF accelerates operational plans to deal with Iran”

(Photo: Knesset Spokeswoman)

In addition, operations disrupting the nuclear program and harming missile and UAV programs in Iran contribute significantly to Israeli deterrence, and help us mobilize cooperation within Iran and the Persian Gulf.

Finally, it should be recognized that the success of Israel’s covert disruption operations contributes to eroding the stability of the ayatollahs’ regime. This does not mean that a mass uprising against Khamenei and Raisi is around the corner. Certainly not directly because of what Israel is doing. But historical experience shows that sometimes, when the fuel vapor is in the air, even a small spark can ignite a large combustion.

For all these reasons it is desirable and even necessary to step up disruptive activity in Iran, which will also buy us time to prepare for the decisive confrontation if we are required to. Every six months that pass brings Israel closer to the day when it will have a military, diverse, independent and reliable option – through which we can deprive Iran of the ability to threaten and / or use nuclear weapons against us. The day when Israel will have such a capability – both defensively and offensively – is not very far off.

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