2023-10-15 18:56:03
Nine days after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel, planned by half a dozen senior commanders in Gaza and which left 1,400 victims, and as the Jewish state prepares to launch a massive ground operation on the strip of Gaza, tension continues to rise in the region. Particularly with the Lebanese Hezbollah, installed just on the other side of Israel’s northern border. Insurgency also threatens among Palestinians in the West Bank.
Numerous clashes in northern Israel
Hezbollah and Israel clashed violently in 2006, for thirty-three days, after the Islamist organization kidnapped two Israeli soldiers at the border. However, since the attack launched on October 7 by Hamas, clashes between Israelis and Hezbollah militants have increased: they have already left around ten dead on the Lebanese side, and at least two on the Israeli side.
Most of them are fighters from the Lebanese organization, but civilians have also been killed, including a Reuters journalist on Friday, and a couple living in the village of Chebaa on Saturday. On Sunday, an Israeli civilian was killed and several others injured in Shtula, in the North, by a missile attack claimed by Lebanese Hezbollah, an ally of Palestinian Hamas in war against Israel.
Israel is also targeting Syria. The Jewish state thus carried out airstrikes on the airport of Aleppo, in northern Syria, during the night from Saturday to Sunday, leaving five people injured according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH). ), just a few days after similar strikes on the airports of Damascus and already Aleppo. Bombings confirmed by the Syrian Ministry of Defense. But Syria, very dependent on aid from Russia, is not really in a position to intervene in this conflict.
Close proximity between Hezbollah and Hamas
For Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, professor emeritus of universities, the Arab world has neither the capacity nor the desire to launch into a new war with Israel, apart from Lebanese Hezbollah. However, he continues, “it would be foolish of him to do so given the catastrophic economic situation in which Lebanon finds itself.”
“If there were to be a very strong deterioration in the situation of the population in Gaza with thousands of victims, following the Israeli military offensive, will Hezbollah, a true state within a state, be able to stay without doing anything ? “, he nevertheless wonders. Especially since there is great proximity between Hezbollah and Hamas, the two organizations sharing the same enemy, Israel. Even if, according to Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, these two entities operate independently of each other in the military field.
Proof that the fear is shared, calls for calm towards Hezbollah are increasing. France on Saturday called on the Lebanese organization and its Iranian sponsor to ” detention “ in order to “to avoid opening a new front in the region”. Washington, for its part, also warned Hezbollah a few days ago not to take any “bad decision”.
The fear of a third Intifada
For its part, Israel, through its Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, affirmed on Sunday that his country was not ” not interested “ by a war on the border with Lebanon. “We don’t want an escalation,” the minister declared to soldiers, according to a video released by his office, specifying however that “if Hezbollah chooses the path of war, it will pay a very heavy price”.
Another very unstable front, the occupied West Bank, poses the threat of a third Intifada. In turn, Palestinians, who suffer from occupation and ongoing settler violence, encouraged by the far-right Israeli government in power for nearly a year, could demonstrate violently against Israel. “Since the start of 2023, there have been nearly 200 deaths, recalls Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, for the most part Palestinian civilians and especially young people, killed by Israel. We can fear in these conditions that the Israeli operation in Gaza will lead to a revolt in the West Bank where, moreover, Hamas is very popular. »
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