American diplomat Frederick Hoff was the first mediator in the issue of the maritime border dispute between Israel and Lebanon more than a decade ago. The compromise he proposed at the time to divide the original disputed territory was nicknamed the “Hoff Line”. In a conversation with Kaan News, he says today (Friday) that the current deal is fair, with very good potential for both sides. According to him, “Israel has been flexible, but the concession will pay off. It’s a shame that a decade was lost. We could have reached a solution even then.”
Listen to the interview
Hoff was the first American tasked during the Obama administration a decade ago to try to find a solution to the dispute between Israel and Lebanon over the maritime border. The disputed area then included 860 square kilometers. His proposal was that 55% of the territory would belong to the Lebanese side while 45% would remain on the Israeli side.
According to the current agreement, the original disputed territory remains largely in the hands of the Lebanese side. “I read the text of the agreement,” he says. “My first impression is that it is potentially very good for both sides. I say ‘potentially’ because there are challenges in the future. On paper, this is an acceptable deal. It is a fair deal for both sides. But that is not the end of the story.”
According to him, “We need to understand how much gas there is on the Lebanese side and make sure that a governmental system is established in Lebanon that will ensure that the people in Lebanon enjoy the profits. Right now this cannot happen. On the Israeli side, the challenge is whether the agreement will last in light of the election period in Israel and what will come after it.”
Hoff says that objectively, “it is definitely correct to say that Israel was flexible and went towards the Lebanese, because the original Lebanese claim to Line 23 was recognized 100 percent through this agreement.” However, he adds: “I think there are opportunities here for Israel that make this concession worthwhile. Israel has many plans to market natural gas to Europe. Anything that can be done to avoid the possibility of conflict will help that.”
Hoff says that when he came up with his idea for a compromise, he did it through American eyes, as if it were the border line between the United States and Canada. Even today he feels a kind of loss. He believes that it was possible to resolve this conflict a decade ago, and the two sides were even very close to it in the form of compromise he proposed at the time.
“The only personal regret I have from all of this is that Israel could have achieved this result a decade ago,” he says. “It’s not Israel’s fault, but the fact that it was a waste of time has more to do with instability in terms of government in Lebanon. A long period without a president and a long period of a transitional government. We were very, very close to an agreement in 2012 when suddenly the Mikati government began to lose power.”
Hoff explains that even then Israel and Lebanon were very close to an agreement. Israel had already given its consent, but the Lebanese government led by Najib Mikati, who is still in office, began to lose power and a governmental vacuum was created, which made it impossible to reach an agreement. Hoff even says that Mikati agreed to accept his offer, but asked Hoff to talk to some of his ministers to convince them. Things were moving in the right direction, but the government began to fall apart.
In the Lebanese context, Hoff says, on the one hand, it’s a shame about the years that were wasted, because it will now take Lebanon another five years to see profits. On the other hand, the Lebanese have time to fix their governmental system. Hof also says that it is difficult to know whether the agreement will strengthen or weaken Hezbollah. According to him, even at the time Hezbollah did not fail the agreement and let the Lebanese state manage it. In the short term, Hezbollah benefits from the agreement because it receives credit for the pressure it exerted on Israel and the Lebanese president accepts it. In the long term, if in these five years Lebanon succeeds in establishing a different governing system – Hezbollah may whisper, which may even threaten its existence.