2023-12-27 10:04:01
Conflicts have largely dominated a 2024 that, at the international level, has left changes in government, geopolitical tensions, natural disasters and violations of Human Rights, among other news sometimes accompanied by the names of politicians responsible for questionable decisions.
1. Gaza and Ukraine
Since October 7, much of the spotlight has been pointed towards the Gaza Strip, the origin of an unprecedented attack at the hands of Hamas militiamen with 1,200 fatalities that unleashed an Israeli military offensive that has accumulated more than 20,000 Palestinian deaths.
The conflict has consolidated the United States as the main supporter of Israel, despite growing criticism both internally and from abroad of the work of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Government, which saw the prospect of political normalization with the Arab world, which it had been pursuing for years, receding. working.
The fear of contagion of the conflict is constant, given the ties that Iran maintains not only with Hamas, but also with Hezbollah in Lebanon or, in Yemen, with the Houthi rebels, protagonists in recent weeks due to their threats to shipping. commercial in the Red Sea. Iran has also signed a historic agreement in 2023 to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has on several occasions expressed his fear that Russian military aggression has taken a backseat and, by extension, Western allies are beginning to waver in terms of support. The US Congress hesitates to approve new aid, although the battery of sanctions against Russia continues and, for example, the EU has already accumulated 12 rounds.
On the military front, Ukrainian forces made some progress after launching a counteroffensive in June, but the fronts have not undergone major changes in recent weeks. Fear of a stalemate that makes the conflict chronic is spreading, which is why kyiv is asking for more and better weapons.
This war has led within Russia to the greatest challenge to date for Vladimir Putin’s power: the rebellion launched in June by the Wagner Group, a network of mercenaries led by oligarch Yevgeni Prighozin, who ended up dying in an alleged plane crash. August 23. Putin washes his hands while confirming that he will run for re-election in March 2024, again without major rivals in front of him.
2. US-China Pulse
The different wars serve to position the main powers and, thus, have shown the different approaches between the United States and China, called to be the two main poles of global power. Beijing and Washington are also waging their particular bilateral tug-of-war that ranges from commercial to political and which experienced a period of special tension after the shooting down of an alleged Chinese spy balloon by the United States in February.
The president of China, Xi Jinping, began what is now his third term in March, marked in its first stages by a consolidation of power that has involved purges and a vindication of key geopolitical issues such as sovereignty over Taiwan, a potential powder keg. political and even military.
In the United States, on the other hand, the main leaders are taking positions for 2024 with presidential elections in sight. The current president, Joe Biden, will run again, while his theoretical rival, Donald Trump, does not give up a new candidacy despite having accumulated a battery of court cases in this year that is now ending: accusations are added to the possible business fraud for his role in the assault on the Capitol and for calling into question the 2020 electoral process.
3. The EU as a global actor
In 2023, Europe saw how a king, Charles III, was crowned and how terrorist threats grew in several countries, derived in part from tensions in the Middle East. Finland, Slovakia and Poland have experienced changes in government while the Netherlands and Portugal are already seeing the end of their respective prime ministers, Mark Rutte and António Costa, the latter marred by an alleged corruption scandal.
The European Union has been forced to rethink its future as a bloc, opening itself to new incorporations such as Ukraine despite not having made progress in the pending debate on enlargement, not finding a common voice in conflicts such as that of Gaza and suffering from situations of blocking such as that led by Hungary, whose leader, Viktor Orbán, has questioned key approaches.
In the final stretch of the year, the Twenty-seven have saved consensus such as an unprecedented regulation on artificial intelligence or a migration pact that reinforces border control and proposes à la carte solidarity. The Mediterranean is the deadliest migratory route in the world and has accumulated more than 28,000 deaths since 2014 – in June half a thousand migrants perished in a single shipwreck near Greece – according to the UN.
Outside the EU, in the Balkans, the unresolved situation in northern Kosovo has reignited tensions with Serbia and, further east, an Azeri offensive on the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh has driven some 100,000 refugees to Armenia and has allowed Azerbaijan to gain definitive control of the area.
4. Changes in Latin America
In Latin America, the year began on January 1 with the inauguration in Brazil of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and continued just a few days later with an assault on the headquarters of the main powers in Brasilia by supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
There has also been a change of Government in Ecuador, where businessman Daniel Noboa has taken the reins after the premature fall of Guillermo Lasso, and in Argentina, which has abruptly turned the page on Peronism to lean towards the extreme right hand in hand with Javier Milei.
In Guatemala, the elections have led to an unprecedented struggle led by the Public Ministry to call into question the victory of the leftist Bernardo Arévalo, who will take office in January, while in Venezuela Chavismo and the opposition are barely trying to establish the bases of an electoral process with guarantees that depends, among other things, on the review of disqualifications of key leaders such as María Corina Machado, winner of the opposition primaries in October. THE
5. Climate change
Climate change remains one of the main challenges worldwide, with constant differences regarding the formula to combat it, as was evident at COP28, while natural disasters have claimed thousands of lives around the world; either due to fires like those in Hawaii in August; either due to earthquakes such as those in Turkey and Syria in March (more than 50,000 deaths), in Morocco in September (about 3,000) or in Afghanistan in October (close to 1,500); either by massive floods, such as those recorded in eastern Libya that devastated Derna and left more than 10,000 dead in September.
Africa is one of the continents most vulnerable to these increasingly extreme climate phenomena, as evidenced by the succession of droughts and floods that affect, for example, the Horn of Africa, while politically, the opening of conflicts such as the one in Sudan in April New coups d’état have been added – Niger and Gabon this year alone – that have led the West to continue losing influence to the benefit of Russia.
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