Emanuel Macron’s bet in the first round of the French presidential election paid off. The incumbent president estimated that the key to the victory he recorded yesterday (Sunday) is to be portrayed more as the president leading France, and less as a presidential candidate like the other candidates. In fact, Macron ran an entire campaign based on the fact that he did not have time to run a campaign. “I’m dying for election events,” he said in an interview about two weeks ago, “but as you know – I do not have too much time for that this time.”
With this approach, Macron made few public appearances, released his well-engineered photographs working around the clock at the Elysee Palace on the Ukraine crisis, dressed in Zalansky-style simplicity, ignoring competitors and in recent days only focusing on calling on residents to go out and vote. It was a dangerous gamble, especially in France – where residents tend to hate their presidents almost from the moment they start serving – but in part because of the war in Europe, it worked.
But in the run-up to Round B, Macron will have to change strategy, and be much more active, if he intends to defeat the populist right-wing camp that has also been strengthened in the current election.
Le Pen speaks a language that can be understood
Marin Le Pen broke well for the center, and in her third presidential run, recorded the best result of the Le Pen family and the “National Front” ever. With some sympathy for the cats, a change of party name, a far-right candidate like Eric Zamor who helped her look moderate, a withdrawal from unfounded promises like retirement from the eurozone – Le Pen has suddenly become a candidate many French are willing to accept at the Elysee Palace. Questions of her suitability for the job have disappeared, and many French people feel she speaks to them “in a language that can be understood.”
The question is whether Macron will be able to change the campaign in the next two weeks. If he continues his policy of ignoring the cost of living and energy issues, continues to talk about Russia and has exhausting and futile phone talks with Putin, while Le Pen again promises voters cheaper prices, French agriculture and national independence and limited accounts, the French president may find himself on the far right Unified, very active, which will try to make a splash on a global scale.
The Socialists and Republicans crashed in the election
Apparently, Macron achieved a better result in the first round than in the previous elections in 2017, when he received 24% of the vote. But then, France’s former People’s Parties – the Republicans on the right and the Socialists on the left – were a significant force that together received 26% of the vote. Their call to unite and support him in the second round against Le Pen was significant. Yesterday this bloc crashed, and the two parties together received only 6% of the vote.
Although the leaders of the Republicans, Socialists, Greens and Communists have already called last night to vote for Macron in the second round, but it is not many voters. Alongside Le Pen, on the other hand, are the voters of Eric Zamor, a TV star who sees Muslim immigration as the root of all evil in France, and another candidate – who together form a goal-oriented and unmotivated right-wing bloc of more than 31% of voters. Zamor has already called for voting for Le Pen, “in the name of the homeland and the future of France.” She herself spoke last night about a historic opportunity to “restore governmental authority” and resort to “economic patriotism” and added that the second round is a choice between two different visions for the future of the country. She proposed “social justice that gathers around the age-old principles of a nation and a people,” and called on “anyone who did not vote for Macron to join” this vision.
Therefore, part of the battle that will take place in the next two weeks will be over the millions of voters who voted for the left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who was not far from reaching the second place. In terms of economic policy, Le Pen and he sometimes propose similar measures, opposing Macron’s economic reforms, which include raising the retirement age and liberalizing the labor market. From a worldview, the right that Le Pen represents is assigned out of disgust.
Last night, after the results were published, Melanchone did not call directly to vote for Macron, but urged his supporters, unequivocally, not to vote for her in the second round. “We must not give even one voice to Mrs. Le Pen,” he repeated.
Macron moves to “Guevald Campaign”
There are already signs of increased gear on the part of Macron, who is now moving towards a classic French “Gueveld campaign”, which proved itself in the days when Marin Le Pen’s father – who has meanwhile been expelled from the party as part of the renovation towards moderation – shocked Europe when he qualified for the second round against Jacques Chirac in – 2002.
In his remarks yesterday after the victory, Macron began to fuel the fear of a possible victory for Le Pen. “Nothing is finished,” he said, “the next 15 days will be crucial for our country and Europe.”
Theoretically, this is not a false intimidation. It is difficult to overstate the earthquake caused by a Eurosceptic, separatist nationalist president who opposes NATO and has previously expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin if he heads France, especially in light of the new reality created after Russia started the war against Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Bezeq poll has already given Macron a larger margin of 8% for victory in the second round, compared to a margin of 4% in the poll from last week. It may be in its infancy.
European right-wing populist researcher Cass admits last night that Macron’s result may be “too good” to mobilize anti-right-wing forces in France. Macron will have to do much more – stand up to a televised confrontation against Le Pen for example – in an attempt to recreate the rhetorical achievements that helped win the election in the previous round. He has already begun addressing the issue of rising prices yesterday, saying that a more united Europe is the solution. “The only project to lower the cost of living is our project,” he said.
But the facts that emerge from the results of the first round are significant. European right-wing populism is alive and kicking. As is the case elsewhere in Europe – but more radically in France – old parties that were at the base of Western democracies are collapsing, and voters are turning to the edges. Older voting patterns are changing. Macron has successfully redrawn the French political map, standing at the center, with far-left and far-right candidates standing on either side. He now depends on this center to secure his rule, while the populist right has a real chance of winning elections that will take place in less than two weeks.