2023-08-08 08:45:06
This is a sufficiently rare figure to be underlined: France reduced its trade deficit in the first half of 2023, which fell from 89 billion euros in the second half of 2022 to 54 billion euros, according to data published on Tuesday August 8 by the delegate ministry in charge of foreign trade, attractiveness and French people living abroad.
This performance is largely linked to the reduction in the energy bill. Over the first six months of the year, the fall in oil and gas prices reduced the import bill, down 9.4%. Exports, for their part, only dipped very slightly (–0.8%). A welcome improvement, as France recorded in 2022 the worst trade deficit in its history, amounting to 164 billion euros. In a weak context, « France pulls out of the game »welcomed the Minister Delegate, Olivier Becht, presenting these results.
Rarer still, this feat is reflected in the contribution of foreign trade to growth. For three quarters, trade in goods and services, the traditional Achilles’ heel of the French economy, has become one of its driving forces, which has not been seen for a decade. In fact, in the fourth quarter of 2022 and in the first quarter of 2023, the external balance contributed 0.5 points to growth, and 0.7 points in the second quarter of 2023. “The contribution of foreign trade is positive, while everything else is negative”underlines Véronique Janod, economist at Natixis.
“Conjunctural elements”
The overall maintenance of exports is due to a few branches which are posting good growth. Aeronautics, whose sales have returned to their record level of 2019, remains the spearhead of the French exporting aircraft, with the best trade surplus, at 16 billion euros, up 12% compared to end of 2022.
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The automotive sector, driven by the boom in electric and hybrid cars, increased its sales abroad by 8%. Perfumes and cosmetics continue to sell better outside the country (+7%), while textiles improve their performance (+3%). On the other hand, the agri-food sector, which usually performs rather well on exports, suffered a contraction in sales of 5% due to the return to normal of certain prices. « We are on the right path “nevertheless assures the minister.
Do these results predict a lasting recovery in France’s trade balance? Economists are less formal about this diagnosis. “I think the improvement in the first half is more related to economic factors than structural ones. », answers Sylvain Bersinger, economist at the Asterès firm. “The transport equipment sector, for example, has suffered greatly since the pandemic [de Covid-19] and still benefited, at the beginning of the year, from a rebound effect linked to the alleviation of shortages of semiconductors”.
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