Time.news – A growth of 6%, compared to the + 4.5% estimated in the spring, a deficit down to 9.4% and a debt that drops to 153.5% of GDP. The Update Note to the Def approved by the Council of Ministers photographs a new framework of public accounts that defines the framework for the budget law, which will be able to count on a room for maneuver of 22 billion in 2022 and will allow the first phase of the reform of the personal income tax and social safety nets to be launched, to implement the single universal allowance for children and to refinance the superbonus.
GDP growth in the programmatic scenario outlined by the government will stand at 4.7% in 2022, 2.8% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. And the executive counts “to reach the quarterly level of GDP pre-crisis by the middle of next year. “The deficit returns to below 10%, reducing compared to the spring forecast. Net debt in 2021 will amount to 9.4% compared to 11.8% estimated in the April Def. The deficit target for 2022 drops from 5.9% of GDP to 5.6% and the deficits forecast for the next two years are also lower than those projected in the Def. was close to 160%) this year and then drop to 149.4% next year and reach 146.1% in 2024.
Prime Minister Mario Draghi stressed that the “economic picture is far better” than assumed in the spring, and that these numbers confirm that “the problem of public debt comes out with growth”, highlighting the return of “confidence in Italy”.
In the same vein, the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, who defined the debt issue as “crucial”, explaining that growth “is the main tool”.
IThe owner of the Treasury assured that “the budget policy will remain expansionary over the next two years” and then it will focus on reducing the debt / GDP ratio.
Franco reiterated that the expected growth is higher than expected, underlining that “all forecasters are moving towards a number close to 6%” and announced that for the third quarter the government expects an increase in GDP of about two points. percentages.
The new macroeconomic framework opens the way for the budget law that will be able to count on a room for maneuver of about 22 billion, resources freed up thanks to the extra deficit 2022, or the difference between the indebtedness at a trend level (therefore with unchanged policies) which according to government estimates will reduce to 4.4% next year in the face of programmatic indebtedness set at 5.6% of GDP. Funds that can be used to finance a long list of new interventions, among these the extension of the superbonus to 2023, the strengthening of the national health system, the renewal of public contracts, the refinancing of the Guarantee Fund for SMEs and unchanged policies not covered by current legislation, including peacekeeping missions.
The difference between the trend deficit / GDP and the programmatic one, explained Minister Franco, “Every year it frees a margin of an abundant point of GDP, equal to about 19 billion, so every year we will have a figure a little higher than this”. However, the owner of the Treasury warned: “It is clear that even within the government we will have an intense and lively debate, but the Nadef sets the limits within which we will have to move”.
The economic policy interventions will be defined in the coming weeks but Franco has nevertheless guaranteed that with the available resources, in the budget law, “it will be important to take some first steps to reduce the tax burden” and proceed with the reform of the social safety nets. In Nadef, the government confirms “its intention to reduce the tax burden by using as a priority the resources deriving from the fight against tax evasion in the context of the budget session”.
And for the tax reform and the reduction of the tax burden, 4.35 billion could arrive from the higher permanent revenues deriving from the improvement of spontaneous compliance, the so-called tax compliance, which will be allocated to the special fund introduced with the last maneuver.
With the budget law there will also be 20 connected ones including the delegation for tax reform, the annual law on competition, the reorganization of the rules on health and safety in the workplace but not the minimum wage. Draghi announced that the tax delegation will be presented next week and the competition law by October. And on the thorny issue of the land registry reform, the premier assured that “the government’s commitment is that no more or less is paid than before, but the annuities are reviewed as they were established” because the goal is “an operation. of transparency “.
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