2024-02-16 04:00:00
The attacks of the Houthi rebels in the area of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea cause great concern in the world. Beyond the damage to international trade that led to a sharp increase in shipping costs and insurance premiums, along with many delays in the supply chains, these attacks caused severe disruptions in global container traffic, approximately 90% of which have to go around Africa on their way to Europe instead of going through the Suez Canal.
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It is already apparent that the aggravation of the crisis created in one of the world’s most important shipping, trade and energy hubs, and at the same time as the escalation of the war in the Gaza Strip, constitutes a critical threat to regional security stability. These terrorist elements, acting under the direction, encouragement and guidance of Iran, dictate a new “agenda” and a new “regional order”, obliging the economies of the region and the global powers to “align” with them.
Meanwhile, the suspension of the passage to the Suez Canal – one of the most important and busiest trade arteries in the world, through which about 30% of the world’s container traffic worth about 1 trillion dollars passes annually – deepens the regional chaos. It amplifies the weakness of the administration in Washington, which has difficulty stopping the resulting escalation, and this weakness is well exploited by Iran. For this, it is a catalyst that encourages it to continue attacking, to influence the conduct of the war against Hamas and even to raise the level of violence in the region without fear of Western intervention.
Moreover. The US – despite the establishment of a Multinational Maritime Force (CMF) and the bombing of Iranian targets in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – is having difficulty dealing with Iran and managing the crisis, all this in an election year and at the same time as curbing the war in Ukraine and tensions over the Taiwan crisis issue. China, on the other hand, continues Massively support Tehran and receive from it security backing in return, including safe transit and sailing conditions for containers and other Chinese vessels in the Red Sea area.
From a broad geopolitical point of view, this is undoubtedly one of the most serious extreme situations in the Middle East. Indeed, as the world’s largest exporter (more than 3.5 trillion dollars in 2022 compared to 2 trillion US exports) and as a power largely dependent on oil imports, China is very concerned about the serious disruptions to shipping and trade routes through the Red Sea, as well as the growing Houthi threat to energy sources : Oil and natural gas pipelines and facilities spread throughout the region.
In addition to its huge investment in the countries of the region, including the development of ports in the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Egypt, Sudan and Israel, a significant part of its trade with European countries and the EU – including millions of tons of oil and petrochemical products – goes to Chinese ports through the Suez Canal.
All of these are part of the “Belt and Road” (BRI) project launched by Beijing in 2013, which includes the construction and development of critical infrastructure around the world, including ports, dams, highways, energy pipelines and advanced communication systems. All of these led to a land-sea-digital connection between about 150 countries throughout Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America.
It is not for nothing that against this background Wang Wenbin, the spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, claimed this week that his country “is in close communication with all parties involved in the crisis and is making efforts to weaken it”. For Beijing, “the priority now is to end the war in Gaza as quickly as possible, to avoid escalation and loss of control.”
A fateful courtship
However, it is already apparent that for China this is an extraordinary opportunity to reap geopolitical capital and not a few strategic dividends from the worsening of the crisis. A closer look shows that the destabilization throughout the Middle East reflects on the global position of the Chinese power, which is thousands of kilometers away from the Red Sea.
Not only is the USA and other major players throughout the region, led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, retaliating, the escalation of the crisis diverts Washington’s attention from the Indo-Pacific region, from the Taiwan crisis as well as from Chinese activities in the South and East China Sea and the spread of its regional influence.
Moreover, while maneuvering between all parties and making sure to tighten its ties with Iran, Beijing – which does not condemn the attacks of the Houthi rebels – also does not join, on the other hand, the US-led coalition and the Prosperity Guardian operation, which is designed to protect ships passing through the Red Sea .
Against the backdrop of pressure exerted by Washington on it, among other things, as part of a recent meeting between the US National Security Advisor and the Chinese Foreign Minister, Beijing is indeed appropriate to try to influence the leadership of Tehran to put pressure on the Houthis to stop their attacks. However, even Having many pressure levers, political and especially economic, which it can exert on Iran, its influence on the Houthis is questionable.
Thus, the Red Sea crisis increases the level of threat and security uncertainty, sharpens Beijing’s ambivalent and cautious stance and represents a formidable diplomatic and leadership challenge for President Xi Jinping, who is facing a critical test here. A test, the results of which will affect the fate of the entire region as well as its position and image as an international mediator and more in one of the most important and conflicted strategic areas in the international arena.
Xi Jinping (Photo: Reuters)
Real Chinese politics
Therefore, it is important to clarify here. From a realistic, pragmatic and broad Chinese perspective, its participation in the coalition is a strategic mistake that could signal to Iran and other Middle Eastern countries that it is siding with the West. That is, it supports Israel and not the Palestinians and all this, among other things, against the background of the worsening of the war in the Gaza Strip. For her, siding with the Biden administration, which is perceived as weakened and less powerful, could send wrong messages to the Arab countries, according to which Beijing supposedly positions itself as a factor that balances Washington, strengthens it and backs up its position. This is a scenario that completely contradicts her geopolitical perception, especially these days, against the background of the intensification of the trade war and the increase in strategic rivalry between them.
Moreover, China is well aware that the destabilization of regional security, with an emphasis on the worsening of tensions in the Red Sea and the escalation of the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, weakens the United States. The intensification of the conflict in one of the most complex and charged regions of the world and the expansion of the crisis in the Middle East into an all-out regional war – among other things, In view of the increasing involvement of the USA which may lead to the accession of Russia – there is a high “price”.
All of these reflect a drastic geopolitical change taking place these days in the global balance of power. This is a profound change that reflects the collapse of American hegemony and the “old” world order. This, along with the creation of a multipolar world full of crises, threats and opportunities, such as the opportunity that the current crisis provides for Beijing, which is expected to take advantage of it to strengthen its global geopolitical power and influence.
Dividends galore
Being the second largest economy in the world (GDP 17.52 trillion dollars in 2023) and a major power in global supply chains suffering from a slowdown, economic shuffling and deflation of 0.5%, the crisis is a critical opportunity for China to compensate for growth of only 5.3% in the past year. Yes, changes in the map Global trade, in shipping and trade routes as well as the weight of global trade, are essential factors that may now be used as a trigger for rescue from a deep financial and social crisis (housing and real estate crisis, alongside 20% unemployment among young people aged 16-24).
They may encourage its exports (which fell by 4.6% in 2023) alongside entrepreneurship and foreign capital investments, as well as improve domestic demand. All this, mainly while taking advantage of the advantages inherent in the BRI project, which connects it with Europe through Russia, Pakistan and the countries of Central Asia, and makes it possible to bypass the Red Sea crisis and the traffic restrictions imposed on the Suez Canal.
Moreover, the crisis proves that despite the multitude of criticisms directed at Beijing (such as human rights violations, financial opacity, economic exploitation and the creation of “debt diplomacy”), the BRI is a critical strategic alternative that every country should adopt, especially in this era of Uncertainties, transformations and deep shocks, as the Foreign Policy also claimed. Indeed, it is already apparent that this ambitious project may promote world trade, speed up economic moves and develop various political, commercial and financial ties and agreements.
The promotion and development of China’s trade relations with many of the countries of the world, with an emphasis on the countries of the Middle East and the oil producers in the Persian Gulf, may accelerate their approach to Beijing and increase the use of the alternative infrastructure offered by the BRI. All of these, in turn, may contribute to the recovery of the Chinese economy and the regional economies, which will also encourage global growth in the future.
The author is an expert on geopolitics, international crises and global terrorism
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