At the end of four months into the war, there are important achievements for the IDF and an inspiring unity among the fighters. At the same time, in Israel there is currently a leadership vacuum at the political level, foot-dragging in vital decisions, a cloudy atmosphere among the leaders, the departure of ministers in the senior ranks of the IDF, confused navigation of contacts with United States. This is not how a war that strives for “total victory” is conducted.
We are in the most complex war since the war of liberation. The challenge then matched the dimensions of leadership led by Ben-Gurion. The challenge today seems to be two or three numbers bigger than Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership.
Israel must obtain the return of the abductees and dismantle the capabilities of Hamas, the authorities and the military. It must arrive at a coordination of expectations and intentions with the United States, in order to ensure the continued supply of armaments and backing in the Security Council, alongside preventing the slide into a regional conflict and protecting our vital interests in the “day after”.
The goals of the war have not yet been achieved: the abductees are still in the hands of Hamas, Hamas controls Rafah and the distribution of humanitarian aid, and is also present in Jabaliya and areas from which the IDF has withdrawn. In the military field, the “breaking” of the Hamas battalions has been achieved, with the exception of the Rafah battalions, but Hamas squads will continue to tail the IDF forces in all sectors.
Nice achievements – but the goals of the war have not yet been achieved, IDF activity in the Gaza Strip | Photo: IDF spokesperson
Three urgent decisions are on the table:
Beyond that, regarding “the day after” a strategic decision is needed between the Biden initiative and the vision of Ben Gabir and Smotrich. In all these issues, policies and decisions were required in the War Cabinet, already from the first week. The Chief of Staff and the members of the War Cabinet came back and demanded them – and were repeatedly rejected. The ignoring of the demands was not related to the conduct of the war but to the preservation of the coalition.
the abductees
The return of the kidnapped is a national, practical and moral duty. It is not more important than eliminating the threat from Hamas, but it is extremely urgent and therefore a priority. Netanyahu tells us that achieving victory will take months, but not years. The Chief of Staff is talking about long months, perhaps a year or more, Gantz recently stated that it could be a matter of years. Already today about a third of the abductees are probably not alive, so it is essential to act immediately. Failure to bring about a release deal will be etched as a collective disgrace on the leadership and society as a whole, for generations.
I believe there could be a kidnapping deal soon. Nothing in life, not even the release of the kidnapped, is “at any cost”. However, Israel must avoid any step that even slightly reduces the chance of reaching a deal. Sinwar is a cynical, cruel and unrestrained opponent. The precedents of the Jibril and Gilad Shalit deals also do not help. But the damage caused by unnecessary announcements is enormous, and observers interpret them as an attempt to thwart the very possibility of a deal
Israel is sovereign, and it has the right not to accept a proposal that does more harm than good, but what logic is there in placing “red lines” that are clear in advance, that will disappear at the moment of truth? (“Three prisoners for every abductee”, says the one who approved over a thousand for one soldier). What is the logic in a public announcement that we will not stop after their release, until we kill all the heads of Hamas? (The announcer stopped 6 times operational plans to eliminate the top of Hamas). It is absolutely legitimate for Israel to strive to kill them, but it has already been said in the West: “If you want to shoot, shoot. Don’t talk!”.
Hamas and humanitarian aid
When Hamas distributes 60 percent of the humanitarian aid – it still controls Gaza. Eisenkot and Gantz are therefore right in their demand to quickly find a party other than Hamas (or UNRA) who will take it upon themselves to manage the distribution of aid, including in Rafah. If it is necessary to significantly reduce the volume of incoming products, until this settlement is achieved, this is a correct and justified step.
If it is necessary to reduce the humanitarian aid until a new regulation – it should be done (archive) | Photo: Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images Rafah and the future of control in the “Philadelphia Axis”
A serious government, which on the first day would have clarified the goals of the war and digested their meaning, would have considered the possibility of simultaneously attacking, at the very beginning of the ground maneuver, both Rafah and the occupation of the Philadelphia axis. Now, this is spilled milk. A full occupation of Rafah and the capture of Philadelphia today will require coordination with the Egyptians and the United States. It is not clear that such coordination will be achieved and it may also conflict with the solution for “the day after”. This is again the price of dragging your feet. A partial operational solution is possible in Rafah with pinpoint raids and precise attacks from the air. The full answer to Rafah and Philadelphia may be postponed to the overall settlement “the day after”.
The miss on the Philadelphia axis is the price of dragging your feet. Now the constraints make it difficult to act Photo: Kobi Gideon, for the day after day
The “day after” should have been discussed from day one. Ignoring it was lawlessness. Its damages are enormous already today and I wish we could repair them. For several weeks now, Israel has been facing President Biden’s proposal, the main points of which were published this week in articles by Tom Friedman in the “New York Times” and David Ignatius in the “Washington Post”.
According to them, the United States, at the head of the “Axis of Moderates”, will support an arrangement whose main principles are: Hamas will not rule Gaza. Its place in civilian control will be filled by a “renewed Palestinian Authority”, which will be committed to the agreements signed by the Authority with Israel, and will represent the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, without Hamas operatives. The Emirates and Saudi Arabia will financially support the “renewed authority” in reconstruction and infrastructure. Egypt will assist in the training of police forces and law enforcement. Operating rules will be formulated that correspond to Israel’s security needs. Saudi Arabia will enter into normalization agreements with Israel and receive, among other things, a defense alliance with the United States, which will guarantee its security. All this on the condition that Israel agrees in advance to a political process whose purpose is a demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, which cannot threaten Israel and which will act with the backing of the “axis of moderation” to change positions in the spirit of normalization between Israel and the countries of the region.
The proposal is described as posing a question to Netanyahu: will you choose to be remembered as the one who led to October 7, or as the one who made a positive historical turn for Israel’s future in the region?
A political way to remove the political control of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, archive | Photo: Reuters
However, for reasons related to the election year and the need to pass the alliance with Saudi Arabia in the Senate, with a privileged majority that includes Republicans, the proposal has no effect after the end of this March.
This is a far-reaching proposal, and I assume that if it had come up before October 7, in the Lapid government for example, it would have deserved an in-depth discussion, even if many points, especially security ones, would have required clarification and agreements. There is no certainty that the rest of the players in the region will respond to the proposal, nor is there any certainty that Biden will be able to pass the alliance with Saudi Arabia in the Senate. It is even possible that, just as the Hamas attack on October 7 was intended to thwart the deal emerging in the triangle of Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia, the Biden initiative will lead the Iranians to consider the activation of Hezbollah in the north to thwart the initiative.
Avoiding the decision is no less bad
The sentiment in the Israeli public today is one of sharp pain, immense anger, a sense of humiliation, a desire for revenge, a feeling that “all Arabs are Hamas”, that there is no chance of change ever. These are human and understandable reactions, but it is our responsibility to look beyond them as well. Remember that this is exactly how we once thought about Egypt and Jordan and we have peace with them. Just close your eyes and think how much worse our situation would be today, if we didn’t have these peace agreements. And how important it is not to destroy them as part of an ill-considered response to the events of October 7.
What is clear is that a decision is required: is Israel moving in the direction of the Biden proposal? Even if the answer is – “Yes, but!” And the “but” is big, or we turn towards the vision of Ben Gabir and Smotrich, and Netanyahu bending to their whims. Biden is waiting for an answer. There are those around him who fear, based on their past experience, that Netanyahu will try to deceive both sides, the main thing is to “get out of the strait” until after the elections in the United States: to convince the administration in English that he is ready to discuss the proposal seriously (yes, but!), he just wants them to understand how difficult it is for him And they will not discuss it publicly. At the same time, he will try to whisper in the ears of Ben Gabir and Smotrich in Hebrew: “Don’t leave, trust me! I already spoke at ‘Bar Ilan’, I fooled Kerry, I fooled Obama, I manipulated Trump, and nothing happened. We will get past Biden as well.”
Smotrich and Ben Gvir impose a messianic vision on the government, archive | Photo: Flash 90
The vision of Ben Gabir and Smotrich, that Netanyahu acts as his slave, leads to a national disaster that has been described by many, more than once. However, even avoiding a decision according to Netanyahu’s method will leave Israel stuck in Gaza, in a position of chronic and profound weakness, with risks of war against Hezbollah in the north and terrorism in the Palestinian Authority, with a rift with the United States, with recognition of a Palestinian state even without understandings with Israel, as British Foreign Minister Cameron hinted And with a risk to the “Abraham Accords” and the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan. This must not be allowed to happen.
so what to do? Election now!
October 7 was the worst event in the country’s history. We fought for 120 days, longer than any war since 1948. The results are partial and problematic. The impending kidnapping deal will lead to a 45 or 90 day reprieve. After it there will be another long fight, we are the ones who will decide when to resume the fighting. We need the most important decision of the war, which has been negligently postponed until today: In which direction is Israel going “the day after”? Towards the Biden proposal? Towards the vision of Ben Gvir? To a third direction? What is it and is it sustainable? This is the time to decide where we are going and who will lead us there. Netanyahu has completely lost public trust, so the captain of the Titanic will save us from sinking? Who said “the life of a nation is not a personal survival journey of a prime minister”? Only elections will indicate the right direction and path.
As far as I understand, it is appropriate for the heads of the central camp (Lapid, Gantz and Eisenkot) to say in a clear voice – “Yes, but!”, to Biden’s proposal. The “but!” will be heavy weight. The reservations and conditions are many and difficult, but only “yes, but!” Obviously, returns Israel to a practical and sustainable course of action and to the ground of the regional reality, in a way that will stop the deterioration of Israel’s position and return it to the position of moral superiority, which was and remains essential, but was fatally damaged during the Netanyahu years.
“Yes but!” For the Americans, promoting elections against Netanyahu (archive) | Photo: Tomer Neuberg, Flash 90
The elections must be brought forward to the earliest possible date, June 4 or June 18. An agreed date at the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025 is a lifeline for Netanyahu, it will allow him to ignore Biden and maneuver for survival, relying on Ben Gabir and Smotrich. Gantz and Eisenkot do not have to leave the government, but in my understanding we must call for these early elections from within the government, call on the citizens of the country to stand up and act for this with all their might, because this is what is right and necessary for Israel.
They tell me: But 60 percent of Gantz and Eisenkot’s supporters think they should stay in the government. Well, it’s the story of the chicken and the egg. When Gantz and Eisenkot will loudly say to their supporters that we have reached the crossroads of decisions and it is essential in this crisis to go back to the people and ask for their trust, their supporters will also support this. Leaders first need an internal compass that tells them what the people need, not just what they demand. One should not expect exactly how the collapse of the government will unfold, but the effort to replace the person at the helm is the duty of the opposition leaders. Close your eyes and think how Netanyahu would have acted if Bennett or Lapid had been prime minister on October 7. Do a quarter of that – the government will fall and Israel will embark on a new path, for which the voter will vote.
>>> Ehud Barak is the 10th Prime Minister of the State of Israel, he also served as Minister of Defense, as Minister of Foreign Affairs and as the 14th Chief of Staff of the IDF
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