The Government assumes an economic slowdown longer than expected in its anti-crisis plan

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There will be bonuses of 0.20 euros per liter of fuel for carriers. / EFE

The Council of Ministers approves the National Plan for response to the war on Tuesday, which will not include a general reduction in taxes

The strong loss of purchasing power in the face of the inflationary spiral, together with a horizon that does not predict the end of high energy prices, have caused concern about the economic slowdown to spread like wildfire among Spanish companies and households in recent weeks. The concern has also been installed in the Government itself, which this Tuesday will give the green light in the council of ministers to the expected National Plan for Response to the War. A document worked out on the basis that this crisis – chained with the pandemic – will be longer and harder than anticipated.

One of the pillars of the new roadmap will be to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices. At this point, the Government rules out a massive reduction in taxes on electricity (electricity bills), energy (fuels) or other tax figures, after the fiscal adjustment carried out last summer on the VAT on the invoice (of the 21% to 10%) or the special electricity tax (from 5.1% to 0.5%, the minimum required by the EU). The measure remains extended, at least, until June 30. But the rise in energy costs during all these months has practically eaten its positive effects. “No one notices today that VAT is reduced on their receipt,” government sources point out.

That is basically the reason why the Executive rules out a generalized tax reduction. Any modification of VAT also implies tracing from Brussels to the Member States. And in the case of hydrocarbons, the margin to act is limited, being closer to the minimum floor allowed by Brussels in gasoline or diesel. Therefore, the action will focus on approving all kinds of bonuses, aid, checks, etc. “They will be measures focused on specific sectors and specific incomes,” point out sources close to the negotiation of that decree.

For example, the plan will include the 1,050 million euros agreed on Friday with carriers between direct aid and bonuses of 0.20 euros per liter of fuel.

Another of the objectives that the Government of Pedro Sánchez has pursued in recent weeks has been to encourage a large income pact, with moderate salary increases for 2022 or salary guarantee clauses that the employers and the Bank of Spain would oppose , due to the risk of aggravating the inflationary spiral. Given this difficulty for the agreement, the Government could announce some direct action on companies by limiting, for example, the distribution of dividends in those that receive aid or subsidies, as was already done with those that accepted the ERTE during the pandemic. .

Liquidity aid

It is known, in fact, that the document will include liquidity aid, with a new line of guarantees from the ICO, similar to the one that saved the productive fabric during the hardest months of 2020. In fact, it has been decided to extend the terms of maturity of those credits still in force. And also those of lack, which should begin to be paid this quarter.

The Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, also anticipated her intention to take advantage of the National Plan to recover the prohibition of objective dismissal if the cause has to do with the conflict in Ukraine.

The details of the document – ​​which could include other points such as the freezing of the clause that links the rental price to the IPC – will be known in the next few hours. But it is certain that they have not been developed for the short term.

The trail of economic effects of this crisis, especially in terms of energy, prices and inflation, is overwhelming. And the Executive has worked with a more unstable scenario over time than was anticipated when Russia invaded Ukraine. For now, most of the measures will be in place until a key date, June 30. But no Moncloa economic department rules out extensions that go even beyond the summer if the situation becomes entrenched.

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