The separation of the poverty line from the subsistence level will result in even greater confusion in determining the basic indicators for the state’s social policy. Confusion, which has already reached a critical level.
To understand what is being proposed, you first have to remember where the poverty line is now. And it goes through the subsistence minimum, which is set annually by the government at the federal level, and the authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation – at the regional level: a citizen’s income is less than a ruble – he is poor, and even a ruble more – no longer. Incomes below the subsistence level give the right to social assistance from the state, moreover, the amount of some benefits and payments depends on this very minimum.
It was calculated until 2020 as follows: Rosstat calculated a very meager list of food products with a predominance of potatoes, beets, carrots, cabbage, pasta, cheap cereals and bread, data on the cost of this set for the second quarter were taken, multiplied by certain coefficients (so that at least somehow- then take into account the costs of non-food products and various payments), and the consumer basket was obtained, which is the federal subsistence minimum for the next year in monetary terms. The regions followed their minima. In fact, since 2012, the law required to revise the consumer basket every five years, but this norm in 2017, as soon as the deadline came up, was frozen first for a year, then for another year, then another …
The fact is that scientists proposed to make the set of products in the basket more modern, healthy and useful, to increase the amount of dairy, meat products, fruits and fish. Moreover, it was necessary to lay more on services – for cellular communications and the Internet, for example. But this would inevitably lead to an increase in the value of the basket! This means that it would raise the cost of living (and the poverty line, which gives the right to social assistance) to a height that the government, apparently, seemed excessive.
In the end, in the fall of 2020, a law was adopted on a completely new methodology for determining the poverty line, that is, the subsistence minimum (SL). A more modern methodology, we note – this is exactly what is used in the European Union, for example. Now the PM in Russia is equal to 44.2% of the median income of Russians for the year before last. And the median income is such an income, less and more than 50% of Russians each have, according to Rosstat once a year based on data from the Pension Fund. In 2021, the poverty line determined for the first time using this method passed at the level of 11,653 rubles a month.
When the law was adopted, the deputies from different factions drew attention to the fact that this method does not take into account the accumulated inflation in any way. And in addition to the fact that 44.2% is a strange figure, in Europe everywhere poverty is considered to be income below 60% of the median. But government representatives explained that in Europe the amount of benefits does not depend on the subsistence allowance, but in our country it does, making it clear that the wonderful 44.2% were born as a result of adjusting to the budget and the willingness of the authorities to spend a certain amount on the payment of benefits, no more …
By the way, the State Duma also said that if the consumer basket were revised, it would be more profitable for citizens than the median approach in the proposed version, and would allow inflation to be taken into account when determining the subsistence minimum. But no reservations about inflation have appeared in the law.
And now, calculated in July in full accordance with the new methodology and approved by a government decree for at least 2022, it came out as follows: 11,950 rubles … 2.5% more than in 2021. By as much as 297 rubles more! At the same time, prices were growing and continue to take one height after another. It turned out to be completely ashamed. Then the method of calculation approved by the law was temporarily frozen and the subsistence minimum for 2022 was established by order, having made amendments to the budget at the suggestion of President Putin: they set it at 12,654 rubles a month, 8.6% more than now.
At the same time, no changes and clarifications were made to the methodology itself temporarily recognized as unsuitable. They still do not answer the question of how to make sure that in the event of high inflation the purchasing power of the subsistence minimum does not fall. And to the question of what to do if by the summer of 2022, when the time comes to calculate the PM for 2023, it turns out that the indicator calculated according to the “median” method will be lower than the current, voluntarily established by the decision of the head of state, there is also no answer.
But there is the very proposal of the Ministry of Labor on a new methodology for establishing the poverty line, which is proposed to be approved by a government decree! What is the essence of the matter? The starting point is the cost of living for the last quarter of 2020, calculated according to the old, by calculating the consumer basket: it was equal to 11,300 rubles per month. Each quarter, this figure will be multiplied by the consumer price index monitored by Rosstat. The resulting amount will be considered the official poverty line. Someone who has less than even a ruble is poor, someone who has more than even a ruble – it seems like no longer.
At the beginning of November, the consumer price index, according to Rosstat data – 6.4% relative to December last year. The “statistical” poverty line means that now it is somewhere in the region of 12,023 rubles a month. By the end of the year, it will go even higher – prices are still briskly going up and are not going to stop …
Now do you understand why the cost of living, which the government wants to deprive the title of “official poverty line”, was raised to 12,654 rubles a month? If not for this, the poverty line (albeit a statistical one) would have turned out to be higher than the subsistence level at the end of the year, which gives the right to benefits! And what would it look like, tell me?
An important nuance: the PM of December 2020, on which the poverty line now depends, is equal to the monetary value of the very miserable consumer basket that has not been shaken up since 2012.
But why fence a garden? Why do we need some other statistical poverty line, divorced from the cost of living?
It will help reduce the number of poor people in the country on paper. If we take the conditional 12023 rubles per month – the poverty line calculated by the decree – then everyone who has an income of more than 12023 rubles, but less than the subsistence minimum of 12654 rubles, is no longer poor! And, say, just the poor, whom a good state is ready to help too.
The fact is that the median method makes it almost impossible to implement the presidential decree, which ordered to reduce the number of poor people in half. Because the median income rises, so does the poverty line. And if this damned line is drawn on a different level, the task no longer looks impossible …
On November 26, a draft decree on a new “statistical” poverty line was discussed at a meeting of the tripartite commission on the regulation of social and labor relations, which includes representatives of the government, trade unions and employers’ associations. According to “MK”, the document was approved by two parties of social partnership – the government and employers. The head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Alexander Shokhin, however, drew attention to the fact that the commission members had almost no time to discuss the draft document – it became known literally the day before. The trade union side came out with a unified position and did not support the project, which was reported by the head of the FNPR Mikhail Shmakov.
Why didn’t you? Precisely because, the President of the Confederation of Labor of Russia, a member of the Human Rights Council under the President of the Russian Federation Boris Kravchenko told MK, that before us is “an attempt by an authorized agency to prepare in advance tools for reporting on behalf of the President on poverty reduction in order to fulfill it by purely statistical methods. But this game is obvious and there is no need to try to mislead anyone – neither the president, nor trade unions, nor employees. ” Trade unions, he said, continue to insist on changing the methodology for calculating the subsistence minimum.
“In fact, the draft resolution proposes to take the subsistence minimum calculated according to the old methodology as a basis for calculating the poverty line, but in a flawed version,” FNPR secretary Oleg Sokolov explained to MK: according to the old method, the subsistence minimum changed in accordance with the increase in the cost of the consumer basket and it grew faster than the consumer price index, because food prices rise faster. “Even this is a kind of cheating,” he said …
If, in addition, we recall that the “subsistence minimum” in the corresponding law is defined as “the minimum amount of income of a citizen necessary to ensure life,” then another reasonable question arises: if the statistical poverty line is below the minimum, then the state is poor recognizes someone whose income is below the minimum necessary for life? That is, a beggar? And if it is higher, it means that some part of the officially poor will not receive benefits? …
One word is confusion.
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