Time.news – The government is preparing to give the green light tomorrow to the rrequest for an extra deficit of 40 billion to finance new support for the economy and a small share, between 4 and 5 billion, of the multi-year ad hoc fund for the works excluded from the Recovery plan. At a later time, perhaps as early as Thursday, the Economic and Financial Document will be launched, updating the macroeconomic framework setting the new public finance targets in light of the impact of the new pandemic wave. A two-step operation, this is the goal, which could however take longer than expected and may postpone the schedule or lead to the launch of the entire package in a meeting by the end of the week.
Refreshments for businesses over two months
The new tranche of resources will be used to finance a new decree with support for the economy, to be launched at the turn of April and May, immediately after the go-ahead from the Chamber to the deviation, in which a substantial chapter will be dedicated to refreshments and liquidity for businesses, starting with extension of the moratoriums on loans and public guarantees for which discussions with the European Commission are underway.
The government is studying some adjustments to the compensation. The mechanism for disbursement of non-repayable contributions will be replicated but the calculation system will change: sthey will be parameterised over two months and not just one as required by the Sostegni decree. However, the size of the dowry to be allocated to the refreshments is not yet clear: it could reach 20 billion, about half of the available ceiling, but it will also depend on the audience.
Businesses and VAT numbers should also be compensated for fixed costs incurred, such as bills and rents. In particular the tax credit for the leases should be refinanced and the IMU cut on capital goods and a further postponement of the Tosap and Cosap exemptions for another six months are also evaluated.
An ad hoc fund for the works excluded from the Recovery
The extra deficit will also serve to cover part of the works excluded from the Recovery plan, ie those projects ‘in excess’ compared to the 191 billion available to the NRP, and which are in any case considered valid. An ad hoc fund of about 30 billion, to be spread over the six years of the Recovery and financed in deficit, for an average of about 5 billion a year.
The new public finance estimates
On the other hand, updating the public finance framework will require more time. The green disc at the Def could arrive on Thursday or in the following days. The accounting framework will be revised in light of the further deficit request and will take into account the positive impact of the Recovery plan starting from the current year. The expected contraction in the first quarter should lead to a downward revision of the trend GDP, which should stop just above 4%, against the 6% target set in the autumn, with a carry-over effect on net debt. The first deviation from 32 billion with which the Sostegni decree was financed has already brought the forecast of the 2021 deficit from the 7% target, indicated in the Update to the Def, to 8.8 per cent of GDP. Now the new extra deficit request would raise the bar towards 11%.
The deviation will be submitted to the vote of the House and Senate together with the Def in the week of April 22. The following week, the Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, will illustrate to the Chambers the final draft of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan which will be sent to the European Union by 30 April.
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