How do you know that the Middle East is an abnormal place? Because even in a disaster like an earthquake there are those who cry and there are those who laugh. So how can it be that the same earthquake threatens to bury one leader under the rubble and give another a new life. Let’s see how the earthquake reveals the underground currents of the Middle East.
Look, every leader in our neighborhood looks at every event in the following prism: how much it endangers me, and how much it serves me. Let’s start with Erdogan, whose southern Turkey was the main focus of the earthquake and for a long time he feels that his throne is swaying, the economic situation in the Kents, the inflation in the sky and more and more factors are challenging him at home, mainly a rival in the opposition.
The last thing he needed politically was an earthquake, just before the presidential and parliamentary elections this coming May. So the Turkish Sultan went to tour the disaster areas and tried to calm the citizens but they started to lose patience.
The Turks who are already living with a faltering economy and rampant inflation cannot understand how the authorities were not prepared for a disaster in a country that has already seen several earthquakes. Erdoğan’s biggest problem in this story is that the earthquake hit the periphery, those who normally vote for him. So how does the Sultan cope?
Like any classic ruler in the Middle East looking for a scapegoat and imposing censorship. But an earthquake that shakes the sifs is to be expected, what is surprising and unusual is what is happening across the border in northwestern Syria. Despite the massive damage and many deaths, the timing of the earthquake may turn out to be a crazy bingo in terms of the pace from Damascus.
The earthquake revealed the bitter or sweet truth – Assad is no longer assigned
The earthquake hit both areas of the Assad regime and areas of his opponents near the border with Turkey, those already used to rescuing those trapped under the rubble after the bombings of the Syrian and Russian air forces. Similar to Turkey, Syria’s economy is also not recovering.
A civil war in 12 years of atrocities and enmity is something that is difficult to erase and despite everything, in recent days Assad has been walking around the country dancing on blood. Friends, the earthquake revealed the bitter or sweet truth, depending on how you look at it – Assad is no longer isolated because of disgust and the entire Middle East understands that he is here to stay.
One by one, planes and trucks of humanitarian aid arrive in Syria, and this is not only from the companies Iran and Russia, but from a host of countries, including those that for years boycotted Assad, and favored his opponents. Even the Americans loosened the sanctions a bit to allow humanitarian aid to arrive.
In other words, the international community suddenly needs the one who was nicknamed the butcher for humanitarian needs – who would have believed? So look, I’m not a prophet and it’s probably too early to eulogize Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he can still win the elections like a big man, but it seems to me that as far as Syria is concerned, this earthquake officially signifies the end of the era of boycotting Assad.
If in the past Erdogan was on the wave, and Assad was under the wheel, it is quite possible that this earthquake will lead to a change of roles. Short in the Middle East – even a disaster can be an opportunity.