Among the eight Regions that tomorrow, Monday 15 March, will turn red, seven (except Puglia) are close to the peak of the third wave, which should arrive in a week or so.

In the province of Trento, the maximum restriction is triggered by the contagion already in regression.

A picture that applies to all of Italy: on a national basis, the disease expansion index slowed its growth between 6 and 7 March. The data shows leveling signals. That the rate of growth is decreasing is now an established fact, he explains Carlo La Vecchia, epidemiologist and professor of medical statistics at the State University of Milan.

And so in a week or soR

Independent calculations

For over a year, the Lombard scientific community has been referring to the work of Alberto Gerli, engineer, who developed a mathematical model for forecasting the epidemic that proved to be exceptionally effective. To give an example: around 10 February, Milan records an average of 400 new positives per day; on February 14 the Courier servicepublishes the independent elaborations of Gerli, which identify the massive entry of variants and predict for the city a growth of over a thousand infected per day by the end of the month. On 25 February, on time, Milan busted the thousand positives, then arriving above 1,500. The credibility of these calculations therefore lies in the fact that, as already happened in October, they are then confirmed by real data.

Gerli proposes a simpler way to calculate theR

So in the coming days the infections in Italy will continue to increase, with probable peaks of 35-40 thousand cases around 20 March: and the red zones will not limit them, because the epidemic will begin to deflate by itself.

Out of phase contrast

The whole reasoning is based on an understanding of the primary dynamics of the epidemic, which by now is a heritage of common knowledge: what we see today (the data on the new positives) happened 10-15 days ago (the moment of contagion).

The infections that have occurred in Lombardy in the last two weeks in yellow and orange, for example, will manifest themselves in the next 10-15 days, even if the Region will be in red. The effectiveness of the containment is therefore dictated by the speed with respect to the first signs of growth. If it arrives later, when the wave has already exploded, containment – explains Gerli – will only be useful “for the after”, to determine how fast the “descent” will be, not to limit growth. So it would have happened also for the lockdown last spring.

Reflects Professor La Vecchia: Once again the measures are taken late, when the growth of the epidemic is now leveling itself off. These are findings without controversy, because managing an epidemic is extremely difficult. But it seems that only when the number of cases is very high, and many people find themselves perhaps with a friend or a sick relative, can it be accepted that the situation requires intervention. And then one gets the impression that these measures have an impact, while instead probably the already predefined trend. For example, in Brescia and Bolzano, two of the most affected areas in this phase, we see strong slowdowns, a sign that probably a saturation of the susceptible subjects has been reached. We are still in a serious situation, but we must not forget that it is absolutely not comparable to the dramatic one of last spring.



March 14, 2021 (change March 14, 2021 | 10:22)

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