The official changeover is scheduled for Tuesday, January 3 at 12 p.m. in Washington (6 p.m. in Paris). The new members of the American Congress, elected during the midterms which took place in November, must meet in order to take the oath for two years. This will be the moment when the Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives, and, for the first time since his inauguration, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, will have to deal with a divided Parliament: his Democratic Party has retained control of the Senate, but the Republican opposition won a very slim majority in the lower house.
“Americans are ready for a turning point after two disastrous years under the leadership of the single Democratic party”say the elected Republicans, who have promised to open a host of investigations into Joe Biden’s management of the pandemic or the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But, before launching such hostilities, they must agree to elect the president of the House of Representatives, which is by no means obvious as the divisions within the party are strong. The election of the speaker, the third most important figure in American politics after the president and the vice-president, will take place Tuesday in the hemicycle, by a simple majority vote.
Kevin McCarthy weakened
Seven years after his first attempt, Kevin McCarthy, who has led the Republican group in the lower house of Congress since 2014, hopes to get his revenge. But the elected representative from California is weakened by the poor performance of the Republicans in the midterm elections, the “giant wave” predicted by the Conservatives did not materialize.
The party has only 222 seats and will need 218 votes to be elected. However, a small group of elected officials very close to Donald Trump has indicated that he would set his conditions before supporting him. They accuse him of not sufficiently defending the former president. Three even publicly said they would vote against him. “Kevin doesn’t believe in anything, he has no ideology”thus tackled Matt Gaetz, turbulent elected official of Florida.
Kevin McCarthy seems to want to give them pledges to prevent history from stuttering: in 2015, he had already narrowly failed to become Speaker of the House of Representatives in the face of a revolt from the right wing of the party. But he also can’t afford to go overboard and alienate moderate Republicans. Although its room for maneuver is reduced, it does not currently have a credible competitor. Only the name of group leader Steve Scalise circulates as another possibility without his chances seem serious.
Systematic opposition?
With the Republicans in the majority in the House, Joe Biden and the Democrats will therefore not be able to pass new major projects. But with a Senate in the hands of the Democrats, neither will their rivals.
Will the Republicans entrench themselves in a systematic opposition? This would require them to unite while some of their elected officials – as during the vote on the budget before Christmas – voted with the Democrats.
The election of the speaker will therefore also be used to measure their ability to cause harm to the president. Facing a hostile chamber could prove to be a political boon for Joe Biden, if he confirms his intention to run again in 2024 – a decision he is due to announce at the start of the year. In the event of legislative paralysis, he will undoubtedly blame the blocking on weakened Republicans, hoping to turn the situation to his advantage.