2023-08-14 17:54:34
Investors folded their wings before a day of few references in which the low trading volume was the protagonist. The Ibex-35 closed the session on Monday with a slight decrease of 0.05% to 9,429 points, with the banking sector preventing the loss of that level.
Specifically, Unicaja led the selective with a rise of 2.87%, while Sabadell also advanced more than 1%, showing that the sector has fully recovered from the stock market scare experienced with the announcement of a new tax on entities in Italy. Repsol stood out at the bottom of the table, with a fall of around 1.8% in a session in which oil prices fell again, with a barrel of Brent, a reference in Europe, at 86.2 dollars.
The movements were also discreet in the rest of the European stock markets, with investors paying close attention to the development sector in China. And it is that the shares of the giant of the Country Garden sector plummeted again by almost 18.5% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reactivating the ghost of a new real estate crisis in the country.
The company already anticipated last week higher losses than expected for this year. And it has defaulted on its payment obligations to investors, corresponding to two bond issue coupons. Doubts about his solvency are more than obvious. But they can go further. “The negative economy of the country, accentuated in recent days by real estate problems, is weighing on the expectations of results of many companies with great exposure to this market,” they explain from Link Securities.
Bankinter’s analysis department adds that this scenario in China is in itself bad news for the market. However, they recall that “as we have already seen in the Evergrande case, a large part of Country Garden’s debt is in the hands of Chinese creditors”. That is, in the event of falling into ‘default’ (non-payment), the government would probably intervene. For this reason, they consider that the worst-case scenario should have little direct impact outside the country’s borders. In any case, “the fall in the real estate sector once again questions the evolution of its economy and, therefore, global economic growth,” they warn.
inflation slopes
Another factor that continues to worry investors is inflation, since its behavior will largely determine the monetary policy of central banks. Although this variable has moderated substantially both in Europe and the US since its highs, it seems that from now on it will be difficult to continue lowering it, especially the core rate.
In this sense, and for the rest of the week, investors will have some references that will give new clues about the future of monetary policy. Among others, industrial production in the euro zone, as well as the second estimate of GDP and, above all, the final inflation data for July that will be released in the region on Friday. The anticipated data placed the CPI at 5.3%, with the underlying rate -which excludes energy and fresh food from its calculation- at 5.5%.
“The macro will be abundant, but there is nothing really relevant until Jackson Hole,” Bankinter analysts explain, referring to the annual meeting of central bankers to be held between August 24 and 26 and which could be the next catalyst. relevant to the market.
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