2024-04-17 09:23:23
Global inflation is expected to decline in 2024-2025.
As Day.Az reported on Tuesday with reference to Trend, the chief economist and director of the research department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pierre-Olivier Gurincha, said this today during a briefing on the report on the World Economic Outlook as part of IMF spring meetings in Washington.
“The global economy continues to show remarkable resilience, with growth remaining stable and inflation falling, but there are still many challenges ahead. Global growth was 3.2 percent in 2023 and is expected to remain at that level in both 2024 and 2025 This represents an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to October forecasts for 2024,” he said.
Gurinshas noted that inflation continues to decline.
“Average inflation will fall from 4 percent at the end of last year to 2.8 percent by the end of this year and 2.4 percent at the end of 2025. We also forecast a decline in economic performance as a result of the crisis of the last four years, although estimates vary by country .
Inflation trends are encouraging, but we are not there yet. It is somewhat easier to achieve inflation targets, which have stalled in some countries since the beginning of the year. This may be a temporary problem, but there are reasons to remain vigilant,” the IMF expert said.
He further added that inflation remains stubbornly high in many countries.
“Further trade restrictions could also lead to higher goods inflation. Returning inflation to target should remain a priority when there are significant divergences, including between countries, which require careful calibration of monetary policy. A key priority is restoring fiscal buffers, especially in high real interest rates, modest growth and elevated debt Unfortunately, planned fiscal adjustments are often insufficient and could be further derailed given the record number of elections this year,” Gurinshas added.
He further added that reversing the decline in medium-term growth in low-income countries is also a priority.
“Structural reforms should encourage domestic and foreign investment and increase fiscal revenues. This will help lower borrowing costs and reduce financing needs. But the likelihood of serious disruptions in labor and financial markets is high, and the right infrastructure and regulation are needed. Global growth prospects are also harmed by rising geo-economic fragmentation. Trade links are already changing. Some countries could benefit from a reconfiguration of global supply chains, but the end effect could still be a loss of efficiency, making the global economy less resilient,” he said.
The IMF representative noted that a major achievement of the past few years has been the strengthening of monetary, fiscal and financial policy frameworks, especially for emerging market countries.
“This has helped make the global financial system more resilient. Going forward, it is important to maintain these improvements, including protecting the hard-won independence of central banks,” he added.
It should be noted that on April 15, the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group started in Washington.
Major ministerial meetings and events will be held April 17-19, and other meetings will be held April 15-20.
Key events include meetings of the Development Committee and the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the IMF, which discuss the progress of the work of the World Bank Group and the IMF.
The Spring Meetings bring together central bankers, finance and development ministers, parliamentarians, private sector representatives, civil society organizations and academics to discuss issues of global concern, including the global economy, poverty eradication, and economic development.
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