2024-01-13 07:01:21
In recent years, the concept of “multi-scenario” has deepened its hold, and it seems that the IDF and the media tend to use it non-stop. Although the origin of the concept is in the IDF’s perception of the threats facing the State of Israel in the security aspect, it seems that this term has been significantly expanded in the last year , even at a time when the regime revolution led by the government somewhat pushed the matter to the margins of the news.
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The terrible events of October 7th and the war that followed brought renewed attention to the issue and even highlighted the significance of what is happening in Israel on the many arenas that surround us. It must be understood that every military or security move that takes place between Israel and Hamas or the Palestinian Authority has an immediate effect on the Middle Eastern and international system. In other words – everything is connected with everything.
For those who wonder why the Americans are interfering in the fighting in Gaza and the transfer of humanitarian aid to the residents of the Gaza Strip, it is important to emphasize that the events taking place these days express not only the struggle between the State of Israel and Hamas or the Palestinian Authority. They bring to the fore strategic and much broader processes that are taking place across the globe.
Falls in Kiryat Shmona (photo: social networks, use according to section 27 a)
Israel is, in fact, entering the core of global tensions between the US and the West and China, Russia and their metastases. The question of who will win the war will have an impact on the region for many years. A clear victory for Israel, one that would include the destruction of Hamas’ capabilities, is expected to strengthen the pro- American and tilt the entire region in the direction of moderation and economic and political development.
However, a victory for Hamas, or at least its non-defeat, could create a serious crisis vis-a-vis the Palestinian Authority and the rest of the world, damage the Abraham Accords, and even turn Iran into a regional power that is getting stronger politically and security-wise. In this sense, not only the future of the State of Israel is at stake, but Also the future of the Middle East and the forces that control it.
Lebanon is involved in this event, and Hezbollah, which is leading what is happening there, is increasing the scope of its activities against Israel on the one hand and its control of the country there on the other hand.
Syria is also involved for its part, both in a direct confrontation with Israel and in providing assistance to the Iranian forces operating from or through it. Egypt is of course deeply involved both because it is a permanent mediator between Israel and Hamas and because of its proximity to what is happening in the Gaza Strip – but mainly because it is a leading Arab factor in the Middle East.
Iraq, which we haven’t heard much about in recent years, has also returned to the picture as an ally of Iran and a country that allows the activity of Iranian security forces in its territory against Israel.
Yemen also joined the event led by the Houthis, who help the fighting from their point of view, with full Iranian support. All of these join the already close and explosive arenas of the Gaza Strip and Judea and Samaria, and hence also the direct involvement of the Palestinian Authority.
The powers are interested
In all these events some of the Western powers are also involved who are trying to create stability, peace and peace agreements in the region such as France and Britain. On the other hand, there are countries that actually try to create provocations and escalation, such as Russia, Turkey and Qatar. In addition to all of these, there is of course the constant involvement of the UN organizations, the Security Council, the International Court of Justice in The Hague and other international forums.
This war between Israel and Hamas is, therefore, a microcosm of much wider global power struggles that go beyond the Middle East. Israel, despite the differences of opinion with Washington, represents logic, peace, moderation, democracy and hope for economic prosperity from the point of view of the western front led by the USA.
Hamas represents global terrorism, the dark religious extremism led by Iran, and the forces of the axis of evil and the dictatorship that are trying to change the face of the world. The struggle basically expresses the image of future control in the Middle East.
Hence the great interest of all the superpowers in what is happening here. From this comes the multi-agency in all areas, which requires an informed and wise judgment on the part of Israel, but also a demonstration of determination and confidence on its part. Hence the need for Israel to be part of a dominant strategic western axis that will influence the development of the region in the future.
Against this background it is possible to understand the importance of the strategic alliance with the USA, the need to consult and listen to what the Americans say regarding the conduct of the Gaza Strip during and after the fighting, and especially when thinking about the day after and the exit strategy.
The author is the head of the field of national resilience – the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University
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