California Governor Gavin Newsom’s early removal initiative failed; in a deeply blue democratic state, in which, for God knows how long, the Republicans have never won a general election, almost twice as many people voted in favor of Newsom than for his resignation. What preliminary conclusions are drawn from the defeat of the GOP strategist?
The California campaign, according to Republicans, instilled in Democrats confidence that the party has leverage that will help it retain its majority in Congress in the midterm elections of 2022. We are talking about Donald Trump, to whom Newsom tightly tied his opponent in the referendum of Republican Larry Elder … For the vast majority of even moderate voters, not to mention the left, Trump remains an absolutely taboo figure.
If Newsom were judged only on the merits, then he would probably have lost: his inept leadership, which turned into terrible forest fires, power outages, an increase in crime and homelessness, somersaults on the front of the fight against covid, the high cost of housing, terribly annoyed Californians. But the more than $ 50 million that Newsom raised on propaganda and agitation was well spent: citizens were consistently instilled in the idea that Elder was a figurehead serving the Trumpists who would impose on the Golden State the Florida antiquated freelancer, the Texas clampdown on women’s right to abortion, sponsorship of right-wing radical groups – like-minded people who staged the January 6 riots on Capitol Hill in Washington. The point, they say, is not Newsom, the point is a real alternative to it. The same simple idea was promoted by President Biden, who flew to the aid of the governor, who likened Elder to the “Trump clone”.
Looks like it worked. Once again. In 2018, frightening voters with Trump as a fiend of hell, the Democratic Party won back the lower house of Congress, in 2020 the White House, in January 2021 – the majority in the Senate. Now she has saved California. The “donkeys” are going to use the same strategy in the fall before the election of the governor of Virginia. As for next year’s election campaign, the left believes, not without reason, that Trump will not resist the temptation to get into it with both feet and demand that Republican candidates repeat the mantra “about the stolen 2020 presidential election.” Shaking Trump like a bogeyman, the Democrats plan to ensure a high turnout of supporters in the midterm elections, deprive the Republicans of the victory they deserve, plus finally discredit the “redhead” and discourage the GOP from nominating him again as a presidential candidate.
Do Republicans see anything positive for themselves in the outcome of the California plebiscite? Yes! According to CNN, 24% of the referendum participants were Hispanics. 60% of them supported Newsom, but this is 4% less than he collected when he became governor three years ago. The share of the male Hispanic electorate in favor of Newsom was 55%, in 2018 it reached 61%.
Maybe it means something. At least there is a continuation of the trend: in last year’s unsuccessful elections, Trump improved his performance among Hispanics by 4%; Five Texas counties with 80% or more Hispanics that voted for Clinton in 2016 moved into the GOP camp in 2020. In June, the Texas border town of McAllen, where 85% of its residents are Hispanic, elected a Republican mayor for the first time in history. Some of the Latin Americans grow into American soil, become successful, and they cannot but be frightened by the influx of former compatriots into the country, who, from their point of view, are of less quality human material than themselves. So the “huge, awkward, creaky twist” of inter-party sympathies may not have been an accident.
Newspaper headline:
The Importance of Not Trump: Lessons from the California Referendum
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