the inevitable compromise to defend the recovery – time.news

by time news

This can become yet another Italian dispute with an ideological flavor of yesteryear, with social media used by politicians as street speakers. Someone perhaps to say that the vaccine must be necessary to enter work, others to brand as an authoritarian imposition any new preventive measure. It is therefore likely that the decibels will rise in the short term. But a glance at the underlying reality is enough to understand how – not immediately – the practical sense is destined to prevail. And the government will eventually find an agreement with Confindustria and the unions to strengthen protection from the virus in offices and factories, so that Italy can keep the course of recovery. There are not many alternatives of the rest.

In the country, as in France and Germany, the new cases of contagion at this point in the summer are a high multiple of those of the same days in July a year ago. The 63 million doses administered mean that in Italy the number of deaths is very low: similar to that of a year ago, even with more than ten times more infections. But in Italy and in the rest of the euro area, the contagiousness of the Delta variant means that the first signs of a new slowdown in the economy begin to emerge. In Germany, the Zew index on expectations has been down for two months, now back to the levels of January and February when the third wave was in full swing. In the last month in Italy and throughout the euro area, the yield on government bonds dropped by about 20 points (0.20%): as if those who invest no longer fear a recovery inflation but, in perspective, a new cold blow on consumption and investments.


All this is bound to count more than slogans when the government decides – not immediately – whether to extend the green pass to workplaces. Italy can no longer afford a new business closure in the autumn, and not only because the public resources to compensate everyone in debt this time may not be there. the entire production system needs to function as normally as possible. After the collapse of the product and the explosion of the debt of 2020, Italy simply cannot afford another wave of pandemic recession. Even the left wing of the majority understands and accepts it, starting with the Democratic Party and its Minister of Labor Andrea Orlando. And the main trade union force knows this, Maurizio Landini’s CGIL, which certainly does not intend to oppose in principle measures designed to strengthen safety in the workplace. In due course, there will almost certainly be a compromise orchestrated by Palazzo Chigi on the vaccine or swab requirements for access to the factory or office. It won’t be right away for.

The trade unions and the Democratic Party have lived as a stretch Confindustria’s proposal to demotion or keep at home without pay whoever refuses the vaccine and the tampon. They perceived the tones on these points used by Francesca Mariotti, the general manager of Confindustria, as being so hard to stiffen their counterparts. It is therefore likely that for now, within this week, the government will limit itself to introducing the first green passes only in leisure environments. Negotiations on the workplace will then resume later, when the dust of the controversy has settled. But on the merits there is potentially no shortage of room for maneuver for an agreement that suits all the majority parties and the social partners. It is possible to negotiate a limit of employees according to which access to small or very small businesses is not subject to the green pass. It is also possible to help certain companies to perform free swabs in the workplace, on a regular basis, on employees who are not vaccinated (the cost of the tests has dropped a lot). A few months ago the CGIL had even said it was in favor of making sure that companies could become places of vaccination. The unions themselves are sensitive to the demands of their workers who are vaccinated and want to feel protected. And with Confindustria they now have a practice of over a year of agreements on security protocols in the company against Covid. The delicate confrontation, before the summer break, will, if anything, be on other issues. In theory, as early as next week, the social partners should sign with Orlando a document on the guidelines for the reform of social safety nets: the layoffs extended to small businesses (which should contribute) and the slight changes to unemployment benefits. In the first year, the cost of the measures for the public budget would be between six and seven billion. But the proposal remains on the table of the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco. All still to be discussed.

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