Iran’s leaders are sticking to their guns. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said he was saddened by the killing of Mahsa Amini – who died in September after being arrested by the vice squad. No one was surprised that he blamed the protests that followed on foreign agitators. According to Khamenei, these demonstrators are not from “real Iranians”, a disturbing statement that is reminiscent of his crocodile tears in 2009, shed before he unleashed a deadly crackdown on protest.
Hundreds of people died during these and subsequent protests in 2017 and 2019, when security forces retaliated against Iranian citizens who took to the streets. Unfortunately, it seems very likely that similarly terrible acts will happen again in 2022. This state response may work in the short term, but its effects wane over time.
The regime will not be able to hold out indefinitely by multiplying acts of arbitrary violence. Far from taming society, this method has only exalted the insubordination of the Iranians. In short, the regime confuses power and authority.
Senior Iranian officials cling to the fact that the protests do not appear to have a centralized organization or leader. For them, the 1979 revolution is a model of a successful uprising, because a leader – in the person of Ruhollah Khomeini – clearly stood out.