MAINTENANCE – Christopher Borick is professor of political science and director of the Public Opinion Institute at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
LE FIGARO. – Were the polls wrong in announcing a large Republican victory?
Christopher BORICK. – Analysts certainly overestimated some factors, while underestimating others. Polls over the past few weeks have shown a strong mobilization of the Republican electorate. By insisting on this real phenomenon, they diminished the importance of other specific factors, which nevertheless remained important.
The first was the suspension of the constitutional abortion guarantee, with the end of Roe vs. Wade decided by the Supreme Court last June. Many analyzes have tended to underestimate the impact of this topic, which seemed to be too old to affect the ballot. But he helped mobilize Democratic voters, and, at least in part, counterbalanced the dynamic that animated the Republicans.
The second factor was the presence of Donald Trump: the midterm elections are traditionally a ballot where voters…
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