2023-07-03 09:37:33
The first half of the year closed with most of the world stock markets at annual highs. Despite the gradual economic slowdown, investors continue to look for support in slowing inflation, the end of rate hikes and a surprisingly resilient economy.
After a period marked by the negotiations on the debt ceiling in the US, the change in position of the central banks and the entry into a technical recession in some regions such as Germany or the euro zone, corporate results could become one of the main catalysts in the coming weeks.
The barrel of Brent accumulates four consecutive quarters in negative due to the prospect of lower demand and rate hikes, it is the longest streak in the last three decades. Gold also falls for the third week in a row and moves away from all-time highs as risk appetite recovers and bond yields rise.
Featured events for this week:
-On Monday, manufacturing production data is released in Europe, the United Kingdom and the US, and it is expected that they will continue below the 50-point barrier that indicates a contraction.
-The North American market will remain closed on Tuesday for the celebration of Independence Day.
-Also on Tuesday there will be a rate decision in Australia, where a new increase of 25 basis points is expected.
-In the US, the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be published on Wednesday, and employment data will be published on Thursday and Friday where the unemployment rate is expected to continue at 3.7%.
[[H3:El activo de la semana: Iberdrola]]
The Bilbao-based company rises above 10% this year and is 5% below the all-time highs reached in 2020. In recent months, the rise in bond yields has displaced this type of defensive companies. But this stock can bring both stability and growth, as it maintains a strong upward trend in revenue and global targets to increase the share of green energy ensure a steady stream of investment to further fuel its growth.
The biggest threat in the short term continues to be the rise in interest rates, since it makes financing costs more expensive and reduces profit margins. As we have previously commented, this has led it to seek alliances with other partners. But if we look at a longer term, it is the Spanish selective company that invests the most, which will allow it the possibility of continuing to grow in a sector with high barriers to entry. The stability of the results has allowed it to maintain its dividend policy, which is currently around 3.4%, and its dominant position will make it easier for it to attract many sovereign wealth funds for the energy transition in the coming years.
From a technical point of view, after exceeding 11.70 euros per share, 12 euros seems the last hurdle to return to the zone of historical maximums at 12.5 euros. From the lows of last October it has risen 30% and since the break of 11 euros it has started to trade in a new range. In the event of suffering a correction, it is close to the support of 11.70 euros and a little lower in the area between 11.20 – 1.40 euros, one of greater relevance where we do find a buying opportunity.
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