Alberta Premier Jason Kenney is currently breaking unpopularity records in his province. With a starving 22% approval rating, according to an Angus Reid poll released this week, Mr. Kenney is fighting squarely for his political survival. Criticized by the far-right in his own party for waiting too long to lift health restrictions last spring, Kenney is now paying the price for removing all those restrictions weeks later by promising Albertans “the best summer.” all time “. This hubris gesture will have resulted in a fourth wave of COVID-19 in Alberta, more devastating than the first three.
It is in this context that Albertans will go to the polls on Monday in municipal elections to elect, among other things, a new mayor in Edmonton and Calgary, as well as to vote in a referendum on the elimination of equalization. Mr. Kenney thus hopes to win a strong mandate from his constituents to force Ottawa and the other provinces to negotiate, if not the outright suppression of this federal program which redistributes the national wealth from the richer provinces to the poorer provinces, at least a reform in depth. The move is part of the Kenney government’s efforts to achieve “a fairer deal” (Fair Deal) for his province within the Canadian federation.
“We are basing ourselves on the precedent set by the Supreme Court of Canada in its reference on the secession of Quebec, which says that if a province holds a referendum on a constitutional amendment and a majority votes in favor, the federal government has the obligation to negotiate with that province in good faith, ”Kenney said this week.
The arguments put forward by supporters of the yes camp are not new. Alberta’s grievances over the operation of fiscal federalism have been piling up for decades. But the economic difficulties that the province has been experiencing in recent years have given new impetus to its traditional demands.
The main grievances can be summarized as follows. Albertans contribute more to federal coffers than their province’s share of federal spending for more than five decades, thanks to the wealth derived from the development of oil and gas resources in this western Canadian province. They find it hard to accept that other provinces refuse to exploit their own non-renewable resources and prefer to cash equalization checks from Ottawa. They become outright beside themselves when Quebec politicians do not want to know anything about their “dirty energy” knowing that the Quebec government pockets billions of dollars each year in equalization financed, in part, from the revenues generated by the oil industry. Alberta.
It frustrates them to the highest degree that Quebec does not increase its electricity rates – the lowest in North America – in order to fill the state coffers rather than depending on equalization to balance its budget. They still do not understand why the amounts spent on equalization continue to grow each year – to reach almost $ 21 billion in 2021-2022 – while the wealth gap between Alberta and the poor provinces has been steadily shrinking since the fall. the price of oil in 2014 and the decline in investment in the oil industry.
Given the bitterness that prevails in Alberta on this issue, a referendum on the elimination of the principle of equalization – enshrined in the Constitution of 1982 – would seem to have been won in advance. However, a series of factors cast doubt on Mr. Kenney’s bet, starting with the unpopularity of the Prime Minister himself. Monday’s referendum thus risks becoming a plebiscite on the leadership of Mr. Kenney, from whom many Albertans would like the immediate resignation.
Holding the ballot at the same time as the municipal elections, which still arouse mixed interest from the electorate, could also adversely affect the turnout in the referendum. The technical side of the program – the equalization formula being indecipherable to ordinary people – would mean that many voters would simply not be interested in it.
If Mr. Kenney does not receive the result he wants Monday night, it is not only his government’s balance of power vis-à-vis the federal government that will emerge weakened. His own political future will be all the more threatened if he is unable to rally a strong majority of Albertans behind him in his crusade for equalization reform. And his trick will eventually lead to his own political career.