The Korean Peninsula was included as one of the top 10 conflict sites to watch this year, selected by the Belgium-based International Crisis Group (ICG).
ICG selected the Korean Peninsula in its ‘Top 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025’ report released on the 1st (local time). The Korean Peninsula was not included in reports on the same topic published here in 2023 and 2024.
ICG said that while North Korea’s Workers’ Party General Secretary Kim Jong-un defined South Korea as a ‘hostile country’ in 2023 and strengthened relations with Russia by sending North Korean troops in 2024, South Korea suffered from President Yoon Seok-yeol’s failure to establish martial law and the National Assembly’s decision to impeach him as a result. explained.
“The Korean Peninsula, which is experiencing many changes, is creating a tense atmosphere ahead of 2025,” he said. “The return of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump amid a series of circumstances is adding to uncertainty.”
They predicted, “Trump will not withdraw U.S. troops from Korea, but he may demand that Korea pay more in defense costs, which will increase calls among Koreans for having their own nuclear weapons.”
He also said, “If the United States shows an ambiguous attitude toward its defense commitments to South Korea, there is a risk of further emboldening Kim Jong-un.” “It can be done,” he added.
ICG said, “It is unlikely that Kim Jong-un will start a nuclear war as his own survival could be threatened,” but predicted that there was a “possibility of provocation due to misjudgment.”
In addition, △Syria △Sudan △Ukraine and Europe (Russia-Ukraine war) △Israel and Palestine △Iran vs. the US and Israel △Haiti △US and Mexico △Myanmar △China and the US were selected as conflict zones to watch this year.
“Given that the fundamental roots of each conflict are different, it is difficult to generalize about the factors causing this chaos,” the ICG said. “We are challenging the established order,” he said.
He added, “As the pace of change accelerates, the world appears ready for a paradigm shift. The question is whether it will happen at the negotiating table or on the battlefield.”
Song Chi-hoon, Donga.com reporter [email protected]
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