Russia is expected tomorrow (Friday) to officially annex the four districts it conquered in whole or in part during its war in Ukraine, after “referendums” were held in the Kremlin, in which the residents voted overwhelmingly to move under Moscow’s protection. The Ukrainian government and the West have condemned the votes as illegal, forced and fraudulent.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will participate in a special ceremony in the Kremlin, his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, explained to reporters today, during which the four regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia – will be officially accepted into Russia. Peskov added that the pro-Russian governors of these regions will sign accession agreements with Russia during the ceremony, which will be held in the St. George Hall in the Kremlin.
The announcement of annexation was expected following the referendums that were allegedly held in the four semi-occupied provinces. The government of Ukraine yesterday condemned the referendum, calling it a “propaganda show”. In Kiev they promised to find and bring to justice the organizers of the referendums. At the same time, the European Commission published proposals for a series of new sanctions on the Kremlin and its representative in Ukraine.
However, Moscow ignored the criticism, declaring that the polls – which were indeed completely staged – provided a legal basis for annexation. Meanwhile, thousands of Russians continue to flee their country to avoid the “partial” military mobilization announced by President Putin.
“The mock referendums organized in territories occupied by Russia are an illegal attempt to seize land and change international borders by force,” said the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at a press conference in Brussels. “The national mobilization and Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons are further steps on the path of escalation. We do not accept the mock referendum nor any kind of annexation in Ukraine, and we are determined to make the Kremlin pay for this further escalation.”
The package of sanctions proposed by the Commission – the eighth it has promoted since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 – includes provisions to limit the payment for Russian oil, as agreed this month in the Group of Seven countries, as well as new penalties for those who helped organize the staged votes. The new package still needs the approval of the 27 member states of the European Union, including Hungary – whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban this week expressed opposition to the sanctions and claimed that they “cause damage”.
In Washington, the Pentagon announced additional long-term military aid to Ukraine, amounting to $1.1 billion, which includes 18 more mobile artillery rocket systems (HIMARS). The precise systems gave the Ukrainian forces the ability to attack beyond the front line of contact with the Russians, and even helped turn the tide of the war. But US security officials said completing the arms transfer could take years, acknowledging the fact that the conflict is likely to drag on for a long time.
In Kyiv, they reiterated that Russia’s orchestrated referendums and annexations will not change Ukraine’s military goal: to return all occupied territories, including the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia invaded and annexed illegally in 2014. “The Russian Federation organized a propaganda show,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said, “forcing the residents of these regions to fill out some documents at gunpoint is another Russian crime in its aggressive course against Ukraine.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pledged to “protect” the four regions that held the referendums, whose residents the Kremlin and its representatives claim voted to join Russia – and in some cases even by a majority higher than 90 percent.
Yesterday, the two leaders of the “People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk”, Denis Pushilin and Leonid Peschanik, traveled to Moscow to appeal to Putin with an official request to annex their regions to Russia. Such a move would require the approval of the president, and technically also a vote of the Russian parliament, although the final outcome is not in doubt. Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, announced that he would convene an extraordinary session for next week, hinting that formal ratification of the annexation would be received within days.
Government media in Russia reported that Putin is expected to deliver the State of the Nation address tomorrow, and as mentioned tomorrow is expected to announce the annexation of the four provinces to Russia even though Moscow does not completely control them, militarily or politically. Putin may also announce a sharp escalation in the war in Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that steps will soon be taken to fulfill the “aspirations” of the residents of the occupied regions in Ukraine to “unite with Russia”.
In the meantime: recruitment attempts continue, the Russians are trying to escape
But Russia’s attempts to redraw its national borders do not improve its military position or mask its losses. The Ukrainian forces took advantage of their successful counteroffensive in the northeast and are continuing to advance on other fronts, including northwest of Lyman in the Donetsk region, which is at the forefront of intense fighting.
The Russian Ministry of Defense, in its daily briefing on the war, claimed that the Ukrainian attack had been repulsed, but pro-Russian military bloggers took a pessimistic stance: “The situation on the front is getting tense day by day,” noted Semyon Pegov, a military reporter whose Telegram channel has more than a million followers. He added that Ukrainian artillery fire was disrupting the last logistical supply route for Russian forces to Leman, and that Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage units had been spotted a few kilometers from the city. If Yemen falls to Ukraine, Russian military forces there risk an encirclement that could deal another heavy blow to Putin’s faltering war.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, is trying to present its “special military operation” as a success to the Russian public, which was horrified by Putin’s announcement last week of a “partial” mobilization intended to raise hundreds of thousands of reservists as reinforcements. Thousands of men, and also women in the health professions, have already been called up for service. The Russian media also reported on men in their fifties, sixties and older receiving summonses, alongside men of fighting age who are unfit for service due to their health condition or due to other entitlements to a legal exemption.
The chaotic mobilization led to an unusually large wave of immigration: according to reports from Russia’s neighbors, more than 200,000 people, many of them young, have fled the country since the mobilization was announced. Due to the severe restrictions on entry into Europe, convoys of vehicles and people stretched in front of the border crossings to Georgia and Kazakhstan, which became the two main escape destinations. The Russians reported spending days trying to reach the border crossings, and in some cases running out of fuel, food and water. On top of that, those who cross into neighboring countries often lack accommodation and transportation arrangements, and the border towns struggle to cope with the congestion.
Every available seat on the flights from Moscow has been taken in the last few days, and the US last night issued a travel warning to its citizens to Russia. The governments of Bulgaria and Poland issued similar warnings, urging their citizens to leave Russia quickly. The US Embassy in Moscow reminded citizens with dual American-Russian citizenship that they May be conscripted: “Russia may refuse to recognize the American citizenship of dual citizens, deny their access to US consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia and their enlistment for military service,” the embassy announced.