The Macron vote, which had largely seduced the urban, young and CSP+ electorate (upper social classes) in 2017, was largely diverted, in 2022, in the presidential election, as in the legislative elections, towards Mélenchon. The maps that we publish, relating to the results in the first round of the legislative elections compared to those of 2017 and the municipal elections of 2020 by polling station in the cities of Bordeaux, Lille, Lyon and Strasbourg, are instructive. It became “hyped” – ” cable “, François Mitterrand is said to have said in 1986 in a famous interview with television journalist Yves Mourousi, during which he also mentioned his position in the event of cohabitation – to vote for the candidates of the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes). But it is a vote that will be overwhelmingly concentrated in urban areas.
The Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey on the sociology of electors (carried out from June 8 to 11 with a sample of 4,000 people registered on the electoral lists) is very instructive. While the presidential coalition Together! collected 13% of voting intentions among 18-24 year olds and 19% among 25-34 year olds, Nupes obtained 42% and 38% respectively. At the other end of the age scale, the balance of power is reversed: the Macronist candidates attract 28% of those aged 60-69 and 38% of those aged 70 and over, when those of the left-wing coalition do not. drop out only 26% and 15% respectively.
La Nupes also takes precedence over Together! among the most qualified voters (bac + 3 and more), 32% against 27%, as well as among managers, 28% against 22%, and intermediate professions, 35% against 22%. This last category can obviously intersect with the young and qualified age groups. This is where the feeling of not being able to exercise a professional activity in relation to the level of diploma obtained is strongly expressed and it constitutes in a way the heart of the “Melenchonist” electorate.
Grand slam left in Lille?
Urban vote, finally. The vote of the cities leaned very clearly in favor of the candidates of Nupes, which obtains 37% in the decile of the most urban constituencies, that is to say 11 points more than its national average. The shift is thus very clear in these large cities, which are also major providers of seats in the National Assembly. The left-wing coalition carried out a veritable raid there.
Like Lille, where she practically achieves a “strike”. Of the one hundred and twenty-eight polling stations in the five constituencies covering Lille-Hellemmes-Lomme, only seven placed the candidates from Together! in the lead, even less than in the municipal elections of 2020, where the list of the presidential majority came first in eleven offices. These are located in the upscale districts of Lille-centre and Vieux-Lille, Vauban-Esquermes and Saint-Maurice-Pellevoisin.
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