This is undoubtedly the subject which, since the start of the school year in September, has most devoured the schedules of the general staff, the Ministry of the Armed Forces, the Directorate General for Armaments and a good number of specialized advisers from Bercy, from the Elysée and Matignon. But it is also, secrecy-defense requires, the one over which hovers the most discretion. Negotiations around the future military programming law (LPM), which must plan the necessary budget for the model army that France will have by 2030, are progressing slowly. But, according to our information, a certain number of decisive arbitrations should finally be made by Emmanuel Macron by January 2023.
While the text could be presented to Parliament from March 2023, several defense councils must be devoted to the LPM by Christmas. These presidential arbitrations will not exhaust all negotiations. The very fact of setting a deadline tenses up some players in the case. The main lines of the future bill should nevertheless soon be decided, starting with the possible renunciations or shifts of programs, in particular of frigates, deliveries of Rafale or armored vehicles, which make the staffs feverish.
For several months, discussions have revolved around an envelope of 400 billion euros over seven years, from 2024 to 2030. A colossal budget of 100 billion more than the previous LPM, which covered the period 2019-2025, with 295 billion euros. But this budget already appears devoured by the dizzying rise in inflation and energy costs, jostled by the revival of the world arms race, while being corseted by the planning of French deterrence, marked at least until 2060.” It’s exploding everywhere”says an insider.
cyber and space
The Elysée would however have chosen not to get stuck with the fluctuating “retex” (feedback) of the war in Ukraine. ” We must not sacrifice everything in the face of the urgency of the current crises,” considers one of the main actors of the file. “The goal is to ask the right questions. The goal is not to decide immediately to increase or decrease the number of Leclerc tanks, that is not the issue. The goal is to define an overall program., he adds. On the general financial envelope, “there is no framing, assures this source, contrary to the figures often put forward. However, we must prepare all possible scenarios to respond to the constant changes in the international context. We have to make bets”.
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