“The manufacturers on which Brussels is counting to catch up have neither the means nor the desire to embark on this race”

An the land of thirst and deprivation, one dreams of giant fountains and cornucopias. Already traumatized by its technological lag behind the Americans and the Asians, Europe lives as a humiliation to have to slow down its automobile factories for a small square of silicon. European Commissioner Thierry Breton intends to wash away the affront and restore the dignity of the Old Continent.

Within a week, the Commission should unveil a major investment plan in the design and manufacture of electronic components and particularly microprocessors, the brains that drive our machines, from computers to cars, from smartphones to wash.

Read our explanations: Semiconductors: what are these electronic chips whose shortage is disrupting the global economy?

With a loud and clear objective: to double Europe’s market share in the field of electronic chips. A bold gamble, justified by the Union’s desire for sovereignty and competitiveness, but the timing and feasibility of which raise questions. At a time when markets and central banks are burying the era of abundant money, Brussels is betting on nearly 150 billion euros.

Strengthen research instead

Europe now holds around 10% of the world’s semiconductor market. As this sector, valued at 450 billion euros, should itself double by the next decade, this means going from 45 billion to 180 billion in turnover. In this business, where it is necessary to invest 1 billion to generate as much in annual sales, it would therefore be necessary to commit the same sum to achieve this objective. The commission will subsidize, but it relies mainly on private money.

However, the two main European manufacturers in the sector, the Franco-Italian STMicroelectronics and the German Infineon, have neither the means nor the desire to embark on this race. They prefer to focus on niches, where they excel. As for financials, they are wary of such a volatile and cyclical sector. In 2022, nearly 30 new factories built at the height of the shortage will emerge from the ground in the United States, China, Taiwan, Japan and Europe…

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From 2023, their production risks drowning the market, lowering prices and ruining the accounts of electronics engineers, who are familiar with the phenomenon. In this case, Europe, which produces neither computers nor telephones, the two biggest consumers of chips, risks paying dearly for its regained sovereignty. The latter will more surely pass by the reinforcement of its research, in the supremacy of the machines of the company ASML, the designs of ARM or the components of STMicroelectronics or Infineon than by the pursuit of a dream of industrial autonomy.