Belarus has suspended oil pumping through Druzhba towards Poland and electricity supplies to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Estonia has revealed details of a telephone conversation between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Minsk demanded to lift sanctions and recognize the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential elections in the republic. Berlin said that the dialogue is useful, but will not accept migrants. Against this background, Merkel and Lukashenko had a new conversation. Dmitry Drize, political observer for Kommersant FM, believes that the migration crisis has all the signs of an aggravation.
Estonian Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets in an interview with the local TV channel ETV revealed the details of the telephone conversations between Angela Merkel and Alexander Lukashenko. The latter actually offered a deal: ending the migration crisis in exchange for recognizing him as the legitimate head of state and lifting the sanctions completely.
Official Berlin not only did not refute what was said, but also made a statement that Germany and the EU are not going to recognize this leader as the President of Belarus, but a dialogue with him is useful in order to improve the situation of migrants at the border. The FRG’s position remains unchanged: no one is going to let illegal immigrants in, we can only talk about humanitarian aid.
In fact, the Belarusian authorities have indeed taken a number of measures to improve the situation of the arriving citizens, including by transferring them to the situation center. However, attempts to break through continue, there is a threat of further dispersal of migrants along the entire perimeter of the border, since it is not properly closed everywhere.
Merkel’s call to Lukashenko drew serious criticism of the acting Federal Chancellor, including at home. In particular, the “greens”, who seem to be becoming the main opponents of Minsk and Moscow, called this a “terrible signal”. Naturally, in Poland and the Baltics, they also did not spare epithets for the EU leader. Polish President Andrzej Duda has pledged not to recognize any behind-the-scenes agreements without the participation of his country.
The main thing is that nothing has been decided, and the war – this is what it should be called – continues: the Belarusian side blocked the Druzhba oil pipeline, and Ukraine no longer receives electricity. Officially – for technical reasons. But something suggests that the coincidences are too obvious.
According to the logic of Minsk, the European Union “caved in”, showed its weakness, therefore, it is necessary to continue in the same spirit. We can take the risk of suggesting that a moment of truth is coming for a united Europe. It is clear that those who are farther, for example, in the south, can be softer with Lukashenka. Eastern Europe is the opposite. Nevertheless, if not all, then a lot depends on Germany – she will have to play the game, otherwise what kind of leader is she?
By the way, the likely future chancellor Olaf Scholz called Lukashenko a dictator who no longer enjoys the support of his people.
The toughening of Germany’s position is seen as inevitable. And so they made a “technical decision” to postpone the certification of Nord Stream 2. The details of the conversation between Merkel and Lukashenka were disclosed, most likely, deliberately – this is also a signal to Minsk that they are seriously unhappy with them. The stakes in the game are clearly going up, and all this naturally affects Russia.
Read the opinions of political observer Dmitry Drize – exclusively on the Kommersant FM Telegram channel.
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