Researchers come with bitter news: the current climate crisis now really threatens to affect the coffee yield.
We have known for some time that coffee is under serious threat. The bad guy? The changing climate. Climate change-driven increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are driving coffee farmers into a corner. You probably haven’t noticed that until now. Nevertheless, the situation is becoming increasingly dire in the meantime, researchers write in a new study. Does this mean we really need to kick the habit of the world’s most commonly used drug?
It is estimated that about 90 percent of all adults drink coffee every day. Caffeine is the most commonly used drug in the world. Because consumption – in low to moderate doses – is generally considered safe, coffee is available everywhere and does not have to be expensive, few see any reason to swear off this drug. But avid coffee drinkers who – for whatever reason – still intend to ignore the coffee, soon find out that this results in real withdrawal symptoms. In short: the coffee addiction really exists. And the same goes for the withdrawal symptoms.
No less than 99 percent of all coffee consumed worldwide comes from two types of coffee plants: Coffea arabica in robust coffee. Arabica coffee is the most popular type: no less than 56 percent of coffee consumption is consumed by C. arabica made possible. robust C is the supplier of 43 percent of the coffee consumed worldwide.
Two kinds
However, these plants absolutely do not like extreme heat. In fact, C. arabica thrives best at an average annual temperature of 19 degrees. This makes it quite vulnerable in the light of climate change. What also doesn’t help is that the plant is very sensitive to a fungal disease that occurs on many coffee plantations in Central and South America and causes coffee plant rust. robust C does a little better. The plant thrives at a slightly higher average annual temperature (23 degrees Celsius) and is resistant to certain strains of the aforementioned fungal disease. On the other hand, Robusta coffee is less flavorful than Arabica coffee and is therefore seen as an inferior type of coffee.
Climate change
In short, the coffee plant is having a hard time in the current changing climate. Moreover, previous studies have shown that due to climate change – and the associated increase in drought, heat waves and disease – coffee production could eventually drop to 50 percent. “Coffee is a sensitive crop that is very vulnerable to climate change,” says researcher Doug Richardson. “Coffee harvests can fail if the annual average temperature and rainfall are not within the optimal range.”
Climate hazards
The question, however, is how dire the situation really is at the moment. To find out, researchers studied the effects of a number of key climate factors (such as temperature, rainfall and humidity) in the top 12 coffee-producing countries worldwide between 1980 and 2020. And the results are not very rosy. For example, it appears that the frequency of ‘climate hazards’ – the sub-optimal growing conditions due to extremes such as high temperatures – had increased in each region over the period studied. “There is a clear shift,” says Richardson. “Previously, the predominant climate hazards were cold and rain. Now the dangers are heat and drought. Since 1980, global coffee production has therefore been increasingly at risk of crop failures, which can be caused by climate hazards affecting multiple coffee-producing areas at the same time.”
Less land suitable
It is also expected that the coffee plant will continue to be hit hard in the future as a result of the sub-optimal growing conditions. Moreover, less and less land is becoming suitable for growing coffee. The amount of land suitable for growing coffee worldwide could be halved by 2050. And that can make that cup of coffee in the morning a lot more expensive.
The boy
In addition to human-induced climate change, the researchers also studied the effect of natural climate fluctuations, including El Niño – a periodic warming of ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean. “El Niño is a recurring climate pattern that influences the climate in much of the tropics and subtropics,” said researcher James Risbey. “But the good news is that El Niño appears to be having less of an impact on southern Brazil, the largest producer of Arabica coffee in the world. This means that this part of the world may therefore help to compensate for reductions elsewhere.”
All in all, it seems that we can no longer assume that we can continue to start the morning with a fresh cup of coffee in the future. As a result of increasing climate threats, the world’s coffee supply is becoming less and less reliable. It is particularly bitter news for avid coffee aficionados. Maybe kicking the habit and switching to tea isn’t such a bad idea after all.