The mutiny of the Wagner group in Russia raises doubts in China about the future of the bilateral relationship

2023-07-02 15:01:47

The mercenaries’ revolt exposed the fragility of the Moscow regime. Beijing is considering what would happen if Vladimir Putin leaves power.

Just three months ago, China’s leader Xi Jinping was in Moscow with Vladimir Putin expressing confidence in the “firm support” the Russian president enjoyed among his people.

That trust is now in questionafter mercenaries from the Wagner Group rioted, hitting Putin’s image of invulnerability.

Close China watchers say the mutiny could lead Xi to limit relations with Russia, which had already exposed Beijing to global criticism and threatened some of his interests abroad.

China sees Russia as a necessary partner to challenge the US-dominated global order.

Xi’s long-term gamble will work only if the Kremlin leader remains in control to help defend the shared interests of both countries.

But the revolt has raised doubts about Putin’s authority: Wagner’s militia faced little to no resistance from regular Russian forces as it advanced on Moscow. And the decision of the Russian leader to grant asylum in Belarus to the mercenary commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, seemed more like a compromise than the act of a strong man.

“It makes China realize that the domestic policy of the Putin government is quite fragile,” said Xiao Bin, a research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “Fragility existed before, but it has increased since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war,” he added.

The rebellion of the Wagner group threatened the government of Vladimir Putin for 24 hours. Photo. PA

The doubts

China publicly reaffirmed his support for the Kremlin after the insurrectionand analysts say the relationship is likely to remain strong, at least abroad, because of how the interests of the two leaders align.

But the riot probably also forced Beijing to consider how their own geopolitical, economic and territorial interests would be affected if Putin were suddenly overthrown. That could lead China to distance itself from Russia to some extent.

In the 23 years that Putin has been in power, Russia’s relations with China have improved markedly since the Soviet era and the days of President Boris Yeltsin, when the two sides sent dozens of military divisions to confront each other throughout the the long border they share.

Any regime change in Russia would cause an instant reckoning for the relationship. China would be concerned if a new Russian leader would realign the federation toward a friendlier stance with the United States, Xiao said. That could leave China isolated in its rivalry with America and expose it to further pressure.

Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to show strength in an act with the military on Tuesday. Photo: AFP

More extremely, a sour relationship between Beijing and Moscow could require China to redeploy troops to the Russian border, at the expense of other areas, said John Culver, a former US intelligence analyst on China.

“Reducing the number of troops along the binational border has allowed China to prepare for a greater potential for conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea or with India,” Culver explained.

“I don’t think it’s happened enough to make them rethink that, but for the first time they have reason to wonder if maybe they have to,” he said.

Russian gas

Any instability in Russia would also be a warning to China about the urgency of protecting the country’s supply from Russian energy imports. At the same time, a weaker Putin could be an opportunity for China to make some progress, said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University.

The Wagner rebellion appears as the latest sign that China’s relationship with Russia is increasingly similar to its relationship with North Korea, a country that is notoriously erratic and that exploits its volatile behavior to try to pressure China for gains. more support in exchange for moving back.

Since Russia invaded the Ukraine, its trade with China has reached record levels. Beijing has also ensured that Moscow is not diplomatically isolated. “Russia’s main incentive is to get more out of its dealings with China,” Sung said. “Russia can do this when it seems reckless and unpredictable, like North Korea.”

China has already paid a considerable price for its support for Russia. The war has worsened tense relations with the US and undermined its attempt to improve ties with the EU.

Fuente: The New York Times

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