2023-12-07 07:00:56
The president of the National Rally group, Marine Le Pen, at the National Assembly, in Paris, December 5, 2023. JULIEN MUGUET FOR “LE MONDE”
To discuss the current political period, Marine Le Pen cites a phrase from Pascal Praud, the populist presenter of the CNews channel : “All the bills arrive at the same time. » Restraining herself, not without difficulty, from falling into triumphalism, the leader of the far right observes the installation of a favorable atmosphere which is reinforced by events, the choices of her political adversaries and the discipline of her troops.
For the National Rally (RN), this moment opened by the configuration resulting from the 2022 legislative elections, with the second group in the National Assembly and without an absolute majority for Emmanuel Macron, has accelerated since the summer: urban riots and terrorist attacks in France, the strengthening of the figure of the party president, Jordan Bardella, and the national consequences of the conflict in the Middle East consecrate the centrality in the public debate of the far-right movement, to the point that the hypothesis of its victory in the 2027 presidential election is progressing. “A form of certainty is created over the course of the presidential elections and poses us as a credible alternation, and this observation is disseminated by our adversaries, says Marine Le Pen World. Which means that internationally, in economic circles, in the senior civil service, the idea is taking root that we are going to come to power and that they must consider this hypothesis. »
The figures from the annual barometer of Monde and Franceinfo on the image of the far-right party confirm a strong trend. The strength of this indicator lies in its duration, since the same questions have been asked every year for almost forty years.
This Verian (formerly Kantar Public)-Epoka survey was carried out face-to-face from November 21 to 29 on a representative sample of 1,006 people selected using the quota method. Their responses attest to a strengthening of support for the ideas of the RN, its normalization and its credibility, particularly in comparison with the left-wing opposition. After six months of media noise on violence and immigration in France, respondents are also more harsh on the subjects of security, immigration and Islam.
Addiction to Lepenist speech
“The page on the failed inter-round debate in 2017 is definitively turnedobserves Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine, director of studies at the Verian Institute. The porosity between the electorate of the Les Républicains party [LR] and National Rally is confirmed and the RN is, very clearly, the only one to embody the opposition to Emmanuel Macron, including for left-wing sympathizers. » The figures show an addiction to Lepenist speech, despite unchanged programmatic fundamentals – restoration of blood rights, national preference. The proportion of French people who say they disagree with the ideas of the RN is 54%, the lowest figure since the start of the barometer in 1984.
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