The next German chancellor may not be from the CDU / CSU – “It is not a gift from God to have a Christian-Democratic chancellor”. Word of Armin Laschet, who is precisely the leader of the CDU. Which it echoes Markus Soeder, Bavarian governor and leader of the Bavarian Christian-social ‘cousins’ of the CDU by Angela Merkel: “Theoretically, majorities are possible that go beyond the CDU / CSU union”. That is: “It is no longer 100% certain” that the next German Chancellor will be registered CDU / Csu.

These are heavy sentences, which make it clear that the beginning of the end of the Merkel era, after the double electoral blow suffered by her party in Baden Wuerttemberg and in Rhineland Palatinate, marks a fundamental change of pace in view of the federal elections of 26 September: the fact is that the constellation determined by the response of the polls (Greens triumphant in Stuttgart, Spd that holds beyond expectations in Mainz, liberals still in a position to weigh and CDU to score the worst defeats in their history in the two Laender) has opened scenarios new ones, which could also completely disregard the proud party that belonged to Adenauer and Kohl.

The accounts are soon done: as is already the case in the Rhineland in the government of the Social Democrats Malu Dreyer and how it seems to take share in the Wuerttemberg of Winfried Kretschmann, even at the national level a ‘traffic light’ alliance could prevail, ie Greens plus SPD and FDP liberals. In short, a coalition that does not include the CDU governed for 18 years by Angela Merkel, who could express a chancellor who is not a Christian Democrat.

Scholz raises his head in Laschet’s anger

Olaf Scholz, Social Democratic Minister of Finance in the running for the post occupied today by Merkel said so clearly last night, to still hot ballot boxes: “Now a majority without the CDU is also possible. And I want to be chancellor”. A statement that sparked the ire of the head of the CDU, Armin Laschet, who today attacked Scholz without too many compliments: “As head of Finance, he should take care of his ministry and not announce that 10 million doses of the vaccine will arrive in the coming weeks. It does not correspond to reality and creates insecurity in the population “, unleashed the usually mild Christian-Democrat leader – himself a candidate for the chancellery – according to whom” the important thing now is the common good, work for the people of this country, not party hopes “. And again: “We cannot continue like this in the next six months. Our ministers cannot be treated like this. The other parties must decide if they want to oppose the government or if they want to govern”.

As regards the decision on the candidate chancellor of the CDU / Csu union for the federal vote in six months, Laschet does not intend to fail the road map already established: it is decided between Easter and Pentecost, even if the vote in the two Laender is “a alarm bell that prompts us to clearly state where the party intends to go “. The German newspapers are not tender in commenting on the vote: for Zeit “a disaster” by CDU, “which is in the worst crisis for years”.

Towards a traffic light coalition?

A crisis in which Verdi and the SPD, understandably, throw themselves headlong. The signals coming from the Social Democratic leaders are unequivocal and all go in the direction of a red-green-liberal coalition: the prospect of getting rid of the CDU is too greedy, if the federal vote allows it.

The general secretary of the SPD, Lars Klingbeil, he made it clear: “I believe that a ‘traffic light’ coalition is achievable also at the national level”. Agree Kevin Kuehnert, number two of the party that belonged to Brandt and Schmidt, according to which “we see that both three-way options are possible”, that is, both the alliance with Greens and liberals and the “red-red-green” one with environmentalists and the Linke. In short, in addition to representing a scorching defeat in itself, the responses of Baden Wuerttemberg and Rhineland Palatinate could trigger a real earthquake. The scope of which, it must be said, is not reduced even in the CDU / Csu field: it is Soeder himself who defines the result as “a blow to the heart” of the conservative union. On the other hand, Scholz usually says that Dreyer’s victory in the Rhineland “gives wings” to the Social Democrats.

Green leaders too Robert Habeck e Annalena Baerbock – who also avoid uncovering their cards too casually in terms of possible alliances – believe that “now everything is possible”, even if “it is too early to determine now the constellation of government”. The head of the FDP, Christian Lindner, instead wants to know “what the contents are” before indicating his own rankings. For the CDU of Laschet, the road towards the September elections appears increasingly narrow and paved with sharp stones: and, after the double blow, right now it is not even in a position to give the cards.



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