Experts Warn that Next Pandemic is Inevitable, Likely to Come from Viruses
It has been almost four years since the emergence of COVID-19, and public health experts are now warning that another pandemic is not a matter of if, but when. Yahoo Life reached out to several experts to get their insights on where the next pandemic could originate from.
Viruses are identified as the most probable source of the next pandemic, and history supports this claim. The majority of modern pandemics have originated from viruses, and there are numerous types of viruses that could potentially be responsible for the next outbreak.
Dr. Dean Winslow, a professor of infectious diseases at Stanford University School of Medicine, explains that the next pandemic will likely be caused by a viral pathogen transmitted through respiratory routes, considering that this mode of transmission is more efficient. He suggests that coronavirus, influenza, or parainfluenza virus variants are good candidates.
Animals serve as likely reservoirs for viruses with pandemic-level potential. As humans continue to encroach upon animal habitats through deforestation, there will be increased opportunities for animal viruses to adapt to human hosts. Previous examples of viruses crossing the species barrier include Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) from camels, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) from small mammals, HIV from chimpanzees, and potentially COVID-19 from raccoon dogs.
Bats, rodents, and birds are pinpointed as the most probable sources of the next pandemic virus. Some potential culprits include influenza viruses, which have caused four pandemics in the last century. Dr. Allen Cheng, director of infectious diseases at Monash Health, notes that although the seasonal flu is not as infectious as other respiratory infections, its short incubation period allows for rapid spread. Additionally, coronaviruses like COVID-19, MERS, and SARS are also probable candidates for the next pandemic. Furthermore, there is the possibility of new viruses that have not yet been detected or identified in animals or humans.
While bacteria have caused devastating pandemics in the past, experts believe that the infrastructure and sanitation measures in place today make large-scale bacterial pandemics unlikely. Dr. Pablo Penaloza-MacMaster, an assistant professor of microbiology and immunology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, highlights that viruses are more likely to cross the threshold of clean water access and proper sanitation measures. However, antibiotic-resistant bacteria pose a significant health threat, causing a considerable number of deaths globally due to the inability to treat infections effectively.
Fungi, although often underestimated, are also a potential health threat. Dr. Andrej Spec, an expert in fungal infections from Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, predicts that a new fungus could emerge within the next two decades, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths annually. The World Health Organization has already identified several fungal priority pathogens, such as Candida auris, which is highly drug-resistant and fatal in a third of patients. However, experts believe that the likelihood of a fungal pandemic at the scale of COVID-19 is low, given that viruses and bacteria have faster replication rates and higher mutation rates, enabling them to spread more easily.
In conclusion, experts stress the inevitability of another pandemic and warn that it is more likely to be caused by a virus. While bacteria and fungi still pose significant threats to global health, the characteristics of viruses make them more likely candidates for the next major outbreak. Vigilance and continued research are necessary to detect and mitigate the risks associated with future pandemics.