Time.news – The OECD revises the Italian GDP estimate upwards for 2021 bringing it to + 6.3% compared to + 5.9% in the Economic survey on Italy in September (the government in Nadef expects + 6%). In 2022, on the other hand, growth should reach + 4.6% and + 2.6% in 2023. This is what the Paris-based organization underlines in its December Economic Outlook.
“Growth in the third quarter – reads the report – it maintained the sustained pace of the previous three months, with service sector activity picking up thanks to the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. In the period July-September, the growth of industrial production and retail sales continued, albeit at a more moderate pace. Confidence remains high, at levels above or equal to 2019. “Disruptions to global trade continue, although local supply chains have mitigated some of the impact. Tourism rebounded in the third quarter, but levels remain well below. below 2019.
Unemployment rate of 9.6% in 2021
The unemployment rate in Italy it will reach 9.6% in 2021 to then drop to 8.9% in 2022 and 8.4% in 2023. The organization underlines how “the recovery of employment is weak” compared to the “recovery of activities”. Fixed-term contracts have supported the increase in jobs. “Wage growth” is “still contained”.
Public debt still a source of vulnerability
The decreasing trend of the Italian public debt even if “the high levels remain a source of potential vulnerability, together with the risks associated with Covid”. The December Economic Outlook shows that in 2021 the debt / GDP ratio will reach 154.6% and then drop to 150.4% in 2022 and 148.6% in 2023. There is a need for a ” greater growth in the medium term to lower “the level of debt. The deficit / GDP ratio is also down from 9.4% this year to 5.9% in 2022 and 4.3% in 2023.
It is crucial to move forward with reforms
According to the Ocese, “the implementation of structural reforms to digitize and streamline civil and bankruptcy justice systems, increasing competition, especially in services, and increasing the efficiency of public administration remains crucial, together with tax reform to reduce the wedge and complexity of labor taxes “. On the banking front, the organization also provides”a sharp increase in non-performing loans which could reduce credit growth, delay already lengthy court proceedings and increase associated losses. ”
The estimate of world GDP growth has been cut
The OECD it slightly cuts the world’s GDP estimates by two percentage points to 5.6% from 5.8% compared to the Spring Economic Outlook. Next year, the organization explains, growth will be 4.5% and then slow down to 3.2% in 2023. The performance of the US economy has also been revised down to 5.6% from 6.9 % in May (+ 3.7% in 2022 and + 2.4% in 2023). Chinese GDP is also slowing which this year should grow by 8.1% from 8.5% in May and by 5.1% in both 2022 and 2023. Better forecasts for the Eurozone’s GDP, which will grow by 5.2%. year (+ 4.3% in May), 4.3% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023.
“The global recovery continues but has lost momentum and is becoming increasingly unbalanced,” wrote the OECD in the World Economic Outlook in December. “Some areas of the global economy are recovering rapidly, but others risk falling behind, particularly low-income countries where vaccination rates are low and demand has yet to fully recover. “In many countries, the momentum from the strong rebound after reopening due to persistent bottlenecks in supply chains, rising costs and the persistent effects of the pandemic “.
“Stronger and more lasting inflationary pressures emerged in all economies at an unusually early stage of the cycle and there are labor shortages even if employment and hours worked have yet to fully recover. The costs of food and energy are rising sharply, with the most significant impacts on low-income families, as are prices in the sectors of durable goods where supply bottlenecks are most concentrated. These factors make the outlook more uncertain and raise significant political challenges. “The OECD predicts that” inflation will peak by the end of 2021, and then slow to levels consistent with the underlying pressures from rising labor costs. and the decline in spare capacity around the world. ”
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