The year 2023 does not seem to be easy for the region. To the problems that it entails from previous years, such as democratic erosion, discontent with the traditional parties, the increase in poverty and institutional instability, are added moments of uncertainty generated by the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the possibility of a recession of United States and Europe and China’s recovery after the covid pandemic.
And in this sense, the World Economic Outlook publication of the International Monetary Fund is clear. The year 2023 will be one of the slowest growing in the world and this will be especially damaging for developing countries. In fact, some of the main Latin American economies, such as Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Colombia, will see, on average, a drop in GDP of almost one point.
However, the problems will not only be of an economic nature, although they will definitely have repercussions on other factors such as politics, social stability and the institutional outcome of the region.
For seven consecutive years, the quality of Latin American democracies has been in decline. Without going any further and according to The Economist, Uruguay is the only South American country considered a full democracy and that same report denounces with concern the dangers of an advance of authoritarian regimes. When analyzing why Latin American governments suffer this setback, the state’s weak capacity to meet demands is one of the most important variables and this generates enormous discontent among an increasingly demanding citizenry. If we analyze figures, there is a compelling number: In the region, between 2018 and 2022, only 24% of the parties in power were able to achieve re-election, realizing that Latin American societies seek substantial change. However, and despite the ideological change that a large part of the countries went through, the dissatisfaction does not cease. None of the presidents who took office during 2021 and 2022 exceeds a 50% approval rating, except for the case of Rodrigo Chaves from Costa Rica, who, despite maintaining a positive image, has suffered an 11-point drop in his rating. popularity in a few months.
Thus, more than a predominant ideology, what seems to prevail today in the region is dissatisfaction not only with the ruling party but also with democracy as a form of representation. According to the consultancy Ipsos, almost 79% of Latin Americans believe that traditional political parties do not care about ordinary citizens. In the absence of strong party organizations to serve as a retaining wall, the arrival of outsiders may become more frequent. But even worse, in the face of this power vacuum, new forms of representation can gain political ground. The advance of illegal organizations, gangs linked to drug trafficking or other types of illegal groups is becoming increasingly noticeable, not only in extreme countries such as Haiti, but even in those with a high democratic tradition such as Chile or Argentina.
Added to this situation are unresolved problems in several nations. Chile, a country that in the last decades evaded social conflicts and maintained an exemplary democratic quality, today faces a stagnant management due to the fact that it has not been able to resolve the issue related to the drafting of a new Constitution, something that could be resolved recently. at the end of this year with the formation of a new constitutional council. In Bolivia, road and highway blockades kept the city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra under siege for more than two weeks. In Nicaragua, the Ortega regime was on the top of all the news for freeing 222 political prisoners and sending them to the United States, a measure that in no way appeases the authoritarianism that reigns in the country or eliminates violations of the civil and political rights that citizens have suffered for years. And in Ecuador, indigenous organizations continue to protest against the weakened President Lasso, who, in addition to suffering a major electoral setback in recent days, only accumulates a 15% approval rating in public opinion and faces a Legislative Power absolutely against it. In Peru, the unstable president Dina Boluarte remains in power while the mobilizations become increasingly violent. To date, 69 people have died in clashes with the police. But in addition, the head of state faces the attacks of a Congress that became the protagonist of the political negotiations since the president needs legislative approval to be able to advance the elections, something that they have not yet managed to agree on. But if that happens, the Legislative Branch will have an important role in legitimizing the new electoral process and validating, or not, whoever is elected as the new president. Faced with this, it is worth asking ourselves, will they question the legitimacy of the next president as they did with former president Pedro Castillo? Will they make use of the overused figure of the vacancy motion to remove another head of state?
Thus, the Peruvian case demonstrates the relevance that Latin American Congresses have and will have during 2023, not only because of their role as legitimizer of the elections and of possible new leaders, but also because of the legislative blockades that presidents may suffer. In the Brazilian case, the recently inaugurated Lula Da Silva will face fierce opposition in both chambers but especially in the Senate, the body that has historically served as a balance between powers, where we can find several former ministers of Jair Bolsonaro. It is clear that the Brazilian citizens voted for Lula again with the hope that structural reforms will be carried out that will allow, among other things, access to social mobility. However, will the president achieve the necessary agreements in the Legislative Branch? How will society react if the ruling party cannot carry out its social agenda as happened in other Latin American countries, such as Chile or Colombia, where the presidents have not yet been able to apply their respective campaign platforms?
Definitely, 2023 will be a challenging year. To the elections in Argentina, Paraguay, Guatemala are added the opposition primaries in Venezuela, from where the candidate who will probably face Nicolás Maduro will emerge. We Latin Americans will be expectant.
* Graduate in Political Science (UCA).
Researcher at the Center for International Studies (CEI-UCA). Teacher of Latin America in International Politics.
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