2024-09-11 22:10:05
Focusing on orange juice at more than $7,000 per lot was unthinkable just a few months ago and yet it is not history. This explosion in prices is due to production which promises to be even lower than expected in Brazil, the world producer of orange juice.
Them Brazil has not revised its official numbers, but it seems inevitable. The production estimated at 232 million boxes – of 40.8 kg – by the general organization Fundecitrus, in May, may actually fall below the 220, or even 210 million box mark, according to the most pessimistic estimates. This is the lowest production in at least 35 years, due to the worst drought the country has experienced in the last 50 years.
To make matters worse, Brazil’s stocks of orange juice concentrate are also at their lowest. Their estimate, in June, has no correspondence this year, but in June 2023, they are only 85,000 tons, a level that has been considered very low.
Prices have tripled in two years
Two bad indicators, in a country that provides 70% of the juice market today, is the certainty of rising prices and nothing seems to stop. Before the summer season, the amount of concentrated juice when it arrived at the European port of Rotterdam was more than $6,000. It reached $7,000 in August with peaks at $7,200 per tonne. At the Intercontinental Exchange in New York, the futures focus has tripled in two years, according to the Money Times.
Other manufacturers have not shown the ability to cool this burning product. A significant increase in production Mexico may have done some good, but the Mexican harvest, still very affected by the yellow dragon disease, will be alone” accurate » about next year.
Florida production may be higher than the very low levels of recent years, but that will not change the situation, explained Eric Imbert, researcher at the Center for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD).
The company is forced to adapt
The most likely scenario is juice that will remain very expensive until the new Brazilian harvest in June 2025. This prospect should push the food industry to improve its processes. Changes have already occurred, and it contributes to the rise in the price of apple juice concentration, which, like others, is used in combination with orange juice.
Listen againOrange harvest falls in Brazil, prices of orange juice rise
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