2023-10-24 10:12:11
Oil tankers and container ships off the Port of Los Angeles. Lucy Nicholson / REUTERS
It will be reached before 2030, bets the International Energy Agency. However, it fears a temperature rise of 2.4°C before the end of the century.
For the International Energy Agency (IEA), this is now a certainty. Peak consumption of coal, oil and gas, three fossil fuels that particularly emit CO2, will be “visible during the current decade», a first in the scenarios developed by the IEA. According to the agency’s forecasts, the share of fossil fuels in global energy production, which has remained close to 80% for decades, will fall to 73% by 2030. CO2 emissions, for their part will reach their maximum level by 2025, also affirms the IEA. “The transition to clean energy is underway around the world and nothing can stop it. It is no longer a question of “if” but only of “how soon” and the sooner the better for all of us», explains the executive director of the IEA, Fatih Birol.
Risk to the security of the global energy system
The combination of a rise in renewable energy and structural economic changes will lead to this outcome. Ongoing changes in the Chinese economy, where GDP growth, which was very strong for decades, is slowing, could have a very strong impact on the country’s energy needs and, given the size of the country, on the rest of the world. , points out the IEA. But this will be insufficient to achieve the objectives of the Paris agreement, namely an increase in temperature limited to 1.5° C.
Also readDemand for oil, gas and coal expected to peak in decade, says IEA chief
Demand for fossil fuel remains far too high at this stage, insists the agency which has become the world benchmark for energy. And the IEA underlines, with this probable delay in limiting the rise in temperatures, a risk rarely mentioned. The security of the global energy system, which was designed for cooler temperatures overall, and with fewer extreme heat events, could be undermined. Fearing that the temperature rise will nevertheless reach 2.4°C during this century, the IEA is proposing an ambitious action plan based on “five pillars», notably the rise of renewable energies, which could be ratified during COP 28 which will be held in Dubai at the beginning of December.
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