2023-11-05 12:37:48
Solar activity will increase faster and with greater intensity than originally believed. It will peak sooner than experts predicted in 2019, scientists at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) have concluded.
The latest prediction concludes that Solar Cycle 25 will reach its peak between January and October 2024, with a maximum number of sunspots between 137 and 173. At first, experts indicated that the solar maximum would arrive around the end of 2025.
Mark Miesch, the lead scientist at SWPC, explains that the forecast for Cycle 25 had not been updated since its release in 2019, making it unreliable. “We expect our new experimental forecast to be much more accurate than the 2019 panel prediction and, unlike previous solar cycle predictions, will be updated monthly as new sunspot observations become available,” he said.
The Sun is constantly changing and every 11 years it begins a new cycle that has moments of calmer activity and others of more dynamism. This is what is known as solar maximum. During this most intense period, the sun can generate extreme events in the form of a solar storm.
“No two solar cycles are the same,” Miesch added. These depend on solar magnetic variability, which is measured by the number of sunspots, regulates the frequency and severity of space weather events and hazards, which can cause the following effects:
Interfere with the power grid. Degrade GPS signals. Increase the orbital resistance of satellites. Pose radiation risks to airline crews and astronauts.
Stronger solar cycles produce more solar storms with greater intensity.
What did the previous prediction say?
The previous prediction was published in 2019 by NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). They predicted that Solar Cycle 25, after a weak Solar Cycle 24, would also be the same, peaking in July 2025.
This latest Solar Cycle, the 24th, has been the weakest in 100 years with a maximum of 116 sunspots.
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