The Mexican currency in international markets closed yesterday at 16.33 pesos per dollarits strongest level since August 12, 2015 when it ended at 16.28 units, according to information from Bloomberg.
The peso added a gain of 3.7% or 63 cents during the year, making it the most appreciated currency in the broad basket of main crosses., followed only by the Colombian peso, with 2.7%; the Peruvian sol, with 0.5%, and the Polish zloty, with 0.2 percent.
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This rapid strengthening of the national currency against the greenback has opened the possibility of quotes below 16 units per dollar this year.
The appreciation of the peso is due to the flows of foreign currency that reach the country through exports, remittances and foreign investment, the expectation that the wide differential between the interest rates of Mexico and the United States will attract capital, as well as the possibility that Mexico will benefit from the nearshoring opportunity, commented Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero Base.
However, he warned that, although the appreciation of the peso generates optimism, it is not supported by Mexico’s economic fundamentals, but rather by speculative factors.
The above implies a high vulnerability for the exchange rate, he explained, which could observe a rebound due to changes in the investment positions that have favored it until now. Furthermore, the appreciation of the peso affects the competitiveness of exports and reduces the purchasing power of remittances, Siller explained.
He detailed that the possible triggers for an exchange rate rebound could be greater aversion to global risk, a decrease in the interest rate differential between Mexico and the United States above market expectations, cuts in the credit rating of sovereign debt of Mexico and the possibility that the commercial relationship with the United States will deteriorate.
On the other hand, Siller highlighted that the appreciation of the peso is unusual in historical terms, since since there has been a free floating exchange rate regime in Mexico, the peso tends to depreciate in years of presidential elections in the United States.
In fact, Historically, when an appreciation has been observed at the same time as elections, it was because the peso was correcting the losses of previous years, as happened in 2004 and 2012. This is not the case in 2024, since in the two previous years, 2022 and 2023, the peso appreciated 5.01% and 12.96%, respectively, added the specialist.
Meanwhile, the capital market closed the session with mixed results among the main stock indices on a global scale, in a session with low volatility.
Little change was seen in the United States, where the Dow Jones lost slightly 0.03% and the S&P 500 fell 0.04%.
On a local scale, the BMV Price and Quotations Index recorded a loss of 0.18%, breaking a streak of two consecutive sessions of gains. Inside, mixed results were seen.
2024-04-09 11:00:00