2024-08-01 01:29:30
The rise that does not give in fruits vegetables and energy prices drove a inflationary rebound in the first half of July, the highest for the first half of the year since 1996.
Much of the pressure came from fresh and livestock foods such as eggs, according to an analysis by the bank. Bx+.
In the first half of July, annual general inflation stood at 5.61% at an annual rate after the National consumer price index (INPC) increased by 0.71%.
To the increase of the agro-foods We must also add a higher price of energy such as gasthe Gasolinethe electricity and to a lesser extent, to the tourism related services (air transport, tourist packages), usual during the Summer Vacation.
Alejandro Saldana, Director of economic analysis at Bx+, highlighted that this year-on-year variation increased for the third consecutive fortnight and is the largest in the last 12 months.
“This is a reflection of the pressure on the two sections of the non-core index, agricultural and energy. In particular avocado, tomato, onion, carrot, chayote, green tomato y LP gas exhibited variations that caught attention.”
He said the underlying index (which calculates the evolution of prices without taking into account either the prices of energy or unprocessed foods) grew at its slowest pace since the second half of February 2021.
Saldaña added that merchandise prices moderated again due to the dilution of supply shocks from past years such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Covid and the war in Ukraine.
The economist projected an apparent cooling in the consumption of goods while “services continue to show no clear turning point.” inflection, due to a more gradual transfer of the shocks of past years, its greater sensitivity to the increase in wages and the housing gap and education”.
Fernando Monreal, financial analyst Citibanamex, He estimated that they are still waiting for a cut in Banxico during August, despite inflationary rebounds.
He reviewed that economic activity is slowing down and on the margin economic growth expectations have deteriorated, “we believe that the outlook allows for Banxico make a 25-point cut in August, as implicitly anticipated in its most recent monetary policy statement.”
“Although the risks of seeing a pause increase slightly. Today’s inflation surprise and the dynamics of the peso in recent days increase the risks for Banxico decide to be extremely “cautious” and not cut its rate in August.
Citibanamex He stressed that episodes of high volatility are likely to occur (associated with the evolution of the political context in Mexico and the US).
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2024-08-01 01:29:30