—- of Francesco Megna – Trendiest Media —- 2020 was marked by the pandemic but, at the same time, it revealed to us the value of what we often take for granted and that, almost always, we put in the background: the house. The isolation to which we were forced made us understand its value and imagine the ideal requirements it should have. The recovery of the post lockdown real estate market confirms this renewed focus.
The post lockdown real estate market
What happened last year has changed some basic characteristics of the market, with the house becoming dominant in the current strategies of several households. Many Italians have appreciated the house they live in, others have instead thought of modifying it by making improvements, aimed at larger sizes and / or with outdoor spaces. The brick market is therefore ready to start again after the suspension suffered in 2020. Credit, the main driver of the sector, should remain propitious for the mortgage market, with reference rates that will still remain moderate in line with accommodative policies guaranteed by central banks to support the economic situation.
The outlook for the current year is evidently influenced by the actual restart of the economy and by the gradual exit from the pandemic crisis. Nevertheless, it is plausible to foresee a return to everyday life not before the second quarter of 2021, therefore, to estimate a recovery of the real estate market of approximately 6%, equivalent to a turnover of almost 120 billion euros, on the average of the past decade. All sectors, excluding commercial retail, are expected to be affected by the rebound due to the accumulation of demand. Sales are expected to increase in almost all sectors, especially in the suburbs of large cities (AVERAGE + 4%). A slight drop in prices is expected, more markedly in the provincial capitals. The vitality of the market is evidenced by the speed with which the real estate units were sold after the lockdown. In fact, despite the aftermath of last spring’s pandemic, sales times in July were still in decline and subsequently dropped to just 109 days.
Another positive indication comes from investors who, after a momentary slowdown, got back into gear in the summer months (with an increase in sales for investment purposes) and then decreased again due to the second wave of infections. In the second part of last year, the brick was however also able to benefit from the incentives to renovate the properties that support the second-hand market, while on the new one it would seem confirmed the orientation that sees an adjustment of the offer to the new characteristics sought by potential buyers and consolidated on the experience of the first forced confinement due to the coronavirus. Looking to the future, it is assumed that the elegant apartments will remain stable, a sector less affected by the pandemic, and the greater interest that tourist resorts continue to enjoy, which are investing in an enhancement of the offer, is confirmed. In this regard, despite the decline in tourist flows from abroad that we have seen throughout 2020, these places have all in all held up thanks to proximity tourism that could continue to liven up the market also during this year.