The PP would win the general elections again and could even improve its results on 23J, in part thanks to the transfer of votes from Vox, which fell more than one point. Of course, although their advantage over the PSOE increases slightly, the socialists also rise and are above the data they achieved in the general elections. Sumar drops, but it does so less than the extreme right and is positioned as the third party with the most votes.
That is the general picture shown by the data from the September survey prepared by Simple Lógica for elDiario.es. It is the scenario with which the parties face the start of the new course that has ahead of them the attempted investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the negotiations of Pedro Sánchez to undertake his attempt when the leader of the PP fails, as he has already assumed before his party. .
This Feijóo investiture debate starts the counter for new elections that, if held now, would be won again by the PP. According to Simple Lógica, he would obtain 33.6% of the votes, compared to 31.9% a month ago, and above the 33.1% he obtained on 23J.
Behind would be the PSOE, which for now cannot fight for first place but does not allow the PP to take off either. The socialists would obtain 31.8% of the votes, an increase of six tenths compared to August that places them just above their results of 23J (31.7%).
While the fight continues in the first two positions, there is a turnaround in third. The rise of the PP causes a fall in Vox, which drops more than one point in a month, going from 12.9% to 11.7% and is below its electoral results, when the extreme right took control. 12.4% of the votes. This collapse allows Sumar to take third place despite its fall – from 12.7% to 12.3% – which would repeat the same results as in the last general elections.
There is another change in the survey that has nothing to do with the positions of the parties and that leaves bad news for the PP. In recent months, Feijóo’s party has been the party with the greatest loyalty among its voters, the ones that best retained their electorate. But that has already changed: the PSOE is today the party with the most solid electoral base and the popular ones fall to third place.
According to the results of Simple Lógica, the PSOE would retain 83% of its voters in new elections, followed by Sumar, which has 77.8% loyalty. The PP’s percentage falls to 76.1% and it is the party with the most undecided voters among its July voters, 18.6%. Regarding Vox, they would repeat 73.3% and almost 10 would now go to the PP.
These results leave the fight between the blocks with very few changes. The right would take 45.3% of the votes, compared to the left bloc, which would get 44.1%. Of course, these data mean that the left is now in its best results since 2019, while the right is far from its maximums, which placed PP and Vox above 50% of the votes.
Sánchez, Feijóo and Díaz fall
Almost all leaders fall in popularity this month, and Pedro Sánchez and Yolanda Díaz especially do so. Simple Lógica points out that it is common for there to be a sharp drop in popularity after the elections, which in this case takes Pedro Sánchez from 47.1% to 42.4%, and Yolanda Díaz from 47% to 40.3%.
Feijóo also falls, in his case from 24.9% to 23%, while Santiago Abascal is the only one who rises, from 13.2% to 14.4%, although he remains the lowest rated political leader.
National survey, carried out by telephone to a sample of 1032 individuals with the right to vote in general elections. Proportional distribution (CCAA * habitat size and sex and age quotas). He 78,3% of the interviews were conducted on randomly generated mobile phones. The error for the overall data, assuming simple random sampling, is ±3,11 points, for a confidence level of 95.5%, in the most unfavorable hypothesis (p=q=50%). The interviews were carried out between 1 and the September 7th of 2023.
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