2023-10-16 07:28:38
Spain remains without a Government after more than 80 days since the general elections of 23J were held. An electoral result without an absolute majority for any political party, so they are forced to reach agreements and agree.
The failed investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) has given way to Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) who will have to try to form a Government to avoid an electoral repetition. But who would win if an election were held now?
The Popular Party would win the elections and its result would improve compared to the one Feijóo obtained in July 2023. The PP would rise from the current 137 seats to reach 144-146, still without reaching the absolute majority that would allow it to govern alone. Nor could he govern with Santiago Abascal’s party, since they would not reach the required 176 seats. In the best of situations, a pact between PP-Vox would reach 173 seats and would not be able to govern without support.
However, the PSOE would lose seats and votes. It would drop almost one point in percentage of the vote and would go from 121 seats to 117-119.
The results for Vox would also worsen, dropping from 33 seats to 26-27 and Sumar would be left with 31 seats – which it currently has – in the best scenario.
Another case to comment on is that of ERC and Junts, which now have the key to Sánchez’s investiture. Esquerra would go up one or two seats (8-9) and Junts could go down one (6-7).
The rest of the political formations would maintain the number of seats in the case of hypothetical elections in October.
Congress Composition | A3N
Who do we prefer as president?
Who do we want to be the president of Spain? Regardless of who is the candidate for the investiture at the moment, the Spanish prefer Alberto Núñez Feijóo to preside over the country in the next legislature.
This is a fairly close result, since support for Feijóo reaches 37.5% and Sánchez 37.1%, only four tenths behind. Another note: women prefer the leader of the PP and men the leader of the PSOE.
Furthermore, almost 14% of Spaniards surveyed do not want the president to be either Sánchez or Feijóo.
President’s preference | A3N
Leaders assessment: all fail
Neither Pedro Sanchez, nor Alberto Nunez Feijóo, nor Yolanda Diaz, nor Santiago Abascal, none approve.
The ‘popular’ is the one that obtains the best score and is six tenths away from reaching five (4.4). The socialist Pedro Sánchez is two tenths behind Feijóo with 4.2. The leaders of Sumar and Vox get the worst marks. A 3.9 for her and a 3.2 for him.
Leaders rating | A3N
Covenant preference
More than half, almost 62%, of Spaniards surveyed prefer a repeat election to pacts. In the case of having to choose, the preferred option is an agreement between PP and PSOE to form a coalition government (22.5%).
The offer that Feijóo made to Sánchez to govern each party for two years does not convince the electorate.
Investiture agreements | A3N
What’s more, weeks before the national elections were held, the regional and municipal elections were held. The PP and Vox formed coalition governments in several communities. How do you value these pacts? 31.7% consider that the rating they deserve is “very bad” and 21.1% think it is “good.”
PP-Vox coalition government | A3N
Could they agree on PP-Vox? And PSOE-Sumar? None of these pacts could govern.
On the one hand, if the PP obtained 146 seats and Vox 27, they would be three short of the 176 necessary, this being the best scenario. On the other hand, PSOE and Sumar would not be able to add enough seats either, leaving them with 150 deputies between the two parties.
Should the PP give up seats to prevent the entry of Junts and ERC?
The price that the Catalan independence parties have placed on their votes is high. They demand amnesty and self-determination. Some conditions that Pedro Sánchez will have to meet if he wants to continue in La Moncloa.
One option to prevent the PSOE from moving forward despite the demands is for the PP to give up several seats to the PSOE in the investiture so that Sánchez can become president of the Government, avoiding the demands of the independentistas.
However, this option is not supported by 52.9% of the Spaniards surveyed, who believe that Núñez Feijóo should not give up his seats while 35.4% believe that he should.
Give up seats | A3N
The amnesty, in the spotlight
One of the demands of Junts and ERC to give the key to the presidency to Pedro Sánchez is amnesty. The PSOE has distanced itself from the proposal made by the leader of Sumar, Yolanda Díaz, and affirms that everything will be within the “Constitution.”
Amnesty is a key issue. Former socialist leaders such as Alfonso Guerra and Felipe González charged against the amnesty, pointing out that it would be a “very serious error.” However, the current socialist leader confirmed that it was an issue that was being negotiated.
Could the approval of an amnesty law for those involved in the 2017 process deteriorate the current democratic and constitutional system of ’78? 60.5% believe so. This is reflected in the Sigma Dos survey for Antena 3 Noticias.
Amnesty | A3N
#win #elections #improve #electoral #result #23J #Sigma #Dos #survey