2023-08-07 00:10:17
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If therefore the ECOWAS forces manage to free Mohamed Bazoum tomorrow Tuesday, August 08, 2023, how will he be able to stay in power? With what presidential guard does he intend to ensure his own security, given that the current presidential guard is the very one who overthrew him? Let’s even imagine that he disbands the presidential guard. With what army will he be able to defend the country, the current army having quickly and clearly leagued against him? It is literally impossible to govern a country with an openly hostile army. So what army can he count on in a country engaged in a war against terrorism?
I ask all these questions so that we can see how the sub-regional organizations wishing to restore power to Bazoum at all costs are misguided. Let’s even imagine that the armies of the sub-region were able to gather the means to reach Niamey. It is unthinkable to believe that the putschists could kindly leave him at the presidential palace. If I were in their place, I would hide him in a remote corner of the vast Niger. Because Niger is about 1 million 200,000 km2, that is to say ten times larger than Benin. No military operation can succeed in exfiltrating a deposed Head of State who has his presidential guard and his army against him.
Attention ! I’m not saying that the coup against Bazoum is a good thing. Military putsches are destabilizing factors for African countries. I was against the successive takeovers in Mali, Burkina and Guinea. What is happening today, at least in Mali and Burkina-Faso, proves me right. The army said it could solve the problem of terrorism quickly. She merely succeeded in aggravating her own mistakes. One of the obvious signs of the deterioration of the security situation in Burkina is the overflow that is currently taking place towards Benin and Togo. And this overflow would never have taken place if the military in power in Ouagadougou had succeeded in stopping the advance of the terrorists as they promised. They did not succeed in Burkina, any more than they did in Mali. Regime change is not the solution to a security crisis. But in a better mastery of the territory, a consequent equipment of the defense and security forces and a greater cross-border cooperation.
What is evident in the case of Niger is that ECOWAS moved too quickly by threatening military intervention. This has never succeeded in West Africa in restoring a deposed president. Its failure in Guinea, Mali and Burkina should oblige it to respect its own texts which provide for a gradual response to crises of this kind. It is true that in this case, the Nigerien putsch is the sixth successful in the sub-region since August 2020: in Mali (August 2020, May 2021), in Guinea (September 2021) and in Burkina-Faso (January and end of September 2022). The Heads of State of the sub-region are right to fear a contagion. At this rate, no one knows who’s next on the list. In a context where security challenges are piling up, the military have no trouble using it as a pretext to overthrow whoever they want.
But let’s face it. Does Benin have the means to wage war in Niger? No. Neither Togo, Senegal, Ivory Coast or Ghana. In Nigeria, senators have already said no. Since 2009, the country has faced Boko Haram, in addition to other armed groups that roam the territory. Nigeria is the definition of a failed state.
If it really wants military intervention, it is very likely that ECOWAS will have recourse to France or the United States, which have military bases in the country. The Libyan pattern will repeat itself. Except that this time, the Wagner group is in ambush in the Sahel. Russia will not miss this opportunity to show its closeness to the people of Niger. More than ever, the Sahel will be prey to forces of destabilization. Especially since in this case, France does not want to lose Niger. For the former metropolis, to lose Niger is to lose face. And we can see why it gets busy pushing ECOWAS into the trap.
No, the solution to the crisis in Niger is anything but military. And she is certainly not in Bazoum’s return to power.
By Olivier ALOCHEME
#Precise #Event #Editorial #Nigerian #Trap