After the dizzying rise in recent years, the price of olive oil should end this year with a fall of 29.3% compared to the average of 2023, the National Institute of Statistics (INE) revealed this Tuesday, in the first estimate of Accounts Economic Outlook for 2024.
“The price should be registered [no ano de 2024] sharp reduction (-29.3%), compared to the high prices practiced in 2023, as a result of the increase in global production of olive oil adn the normalization of supply, INE advanced.
The expected fall in the average annual price of olive oil in 2024 is explained by the increase in olive production of almost the same order of magnitude (27.1%) for the 2024/2025 harvest, which is currently underway, thanks to “the entry into production of new olive groves in Alentejo”.
Following the increase in production, the organization says that “an increase in production volume (18.7%) is expected for the calendar year 2024, as a result of combining the previous excellent campaign (2023/2024) with the good campaign going on. (2024/2025)”.
According to data published by the European Commission on September 27, olive oil production in the European union (EU) should be 9% higher than the average over the past five years, putting the 2022/2023 and 2023/ 2024 greatly affected him. .
As a result of the sharp rise in olive oil prices in recent years, especially under the influence of bad agricultural years, consumption has decreased. In nearby Spain, the world’s largest producer of olive oil, the high price explains why sunflower oil is more widely used than the so-called “liquid gold”. By Carlos Dias
How should consumers choose olive oil brands amidst fluctuating prices?
Interview with Olive Oil Expert on Price Trends and Industry insights
Q: Thank you for joining us today. The national Institute of Statistics (INE) recently projected a important decline in olive oil prices for 2024. Could you break down the key reasons behind this expected decrease?
A: certainly! The INE forecasts a sharp reduction of approximately 29.3% in olive oil prices compared to the highs of 2023. This anticipated drop can be largely attributed to an increase in global olive oil production. Specifically, the ongoing harvest for 2024/2025 is expected to yield a 27.1% rise in production,thanks to new olive groves coming into full production,notably in the Alentejo region of Portugal.
Q: That’s engaging! How does this increase in olive oil production compare to historical trends?
A: In terms of historical context, the European commission recently noted that olive oil production within the EU should be approximately 9% higher than the average from the past five years. This follows a period were production was notably impacted by poor agricultural years, leading to skyrocketing prices. This year, with both the previous and current harvests being strong, we can expect a production volume increase of around 18.7%.
Q: With such a significant decline in prices, how do you think this will affect consumer behavior, particularly in countries like Spain, which is the largest producer?
A: The dramatic price increase in recent years has caused a noticeable shift in consumer habits.In Spain, such as, many consumers are pivoting toward alternatives like sunflower oil primarily due to the high cost of what is often referred to as “liquid gold.” With prices expected to normalize, we may see a resurgence in olive oil consumption as it becomes more affordable. This could also encourage more people to explore itS culinary benefits and health advantages.
Q: What implications does this prediction have for olive oil producers and the broader market?
A: For olive oil producers, lower prices may mean tighter margins, which could push some smaller producers out of the market. however, it also provides an opportunity for larger producers to increase market share by leveraging reduced costs to attract consumers. Additionally, with the normalization of supply, we can anticipate a more stable market, allowing producers to plan for the future more effectively.
Q: For readers considering purchasing olive oil in light of these developments, what practical advice would you give?
A: I would recommend that consumers stay informed about market trends and consider seasonal purchasing. As prices decrease, it may be beneficial to stock up on quality olive oil, particularly from trusted sources. Additionally, exploring various producers can be favorable, not only to get the best price but also to discover diverse flavors and quality offerings that differ from mainstream options.
Q: Thank you for your insights. what should we keep an eye on as we move into 2024 and beyond concerning the olive oil market?
A: As we transition into 2024, keeping an eye on production levels and consumer trends will be essential. The normalization of prices will likely reshape the competitive landscape, and any shifts in agricultural performance due to climate conditions are also critical to monitor. These factors will ultimately dictate supply and demand dynamics in the olive oil market.
Q: Thank you for sharing your expertise. It’s been a pleasure discussing these important developments!
A: Thank you for having me! It’s always a pleasure to discuss such a vital sector, especially one that impacts so many lives around the globe.